Scattered showers this weekend…

Snow showers this morning up at Wolf Creek  – 11/16/2023 at 7:45am

Snow showers this morning up at Wolf Creek  – 11/16/2023 at 7:45am

If images fail to load in the email, please click the title of the post. Thanks!

Thursday – 16 Nov 2023 – 9:15am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 59. The low was 32 at 9:15pm and then slowly rose to 38 by sunrise. Humidity bottomed out yesterday afternoon at 15%.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 8mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4869 / 194315-15 / 1955

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.

Fire updates…

Below are the links for Trail Springs fire, Mill Creek 2 fire, and Bear Creek.  There has been more smoke from the Trail Springs fire due to low humidity in the afternoons. However, moisture increased last night and will stay high through the weekend so the fires should be less active.

https://www.facebook.com/sanjuannationalforest

https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident-information/cosjf-trail-springs-fire

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this morning – Lots of moisture has been moving through the area ahead of a trough.  Unfortunately there isn’t enough storm energy to wring much precip out of those clouds. Moisture and clouds will decrease this afternoon.
Water vapor satellite this morning – Lots of moisture has been moving through the area ahead of a trough.  Unfortunately there isn’t enough storm energy to wring much precip out of those clouds. Moisture and clouds will decrease this afternoon.
Radar this morning – There are a few scattered showers moving towards the east-northeast.
Radar this morning – There are a few scattered showers moving towards the east-northeast.

Forecast Highlights…

*** Scattered showers Thursday morning. ***

*** Better chance for showers Saturday and Sunday. ***

Thursday and Friday… The ridge has moved to our east. Upper-level southwest flow has pushed more moisture into our area. We’ll see more clouds and scattered showers Thursday morning, mostly over the mountains. Most of Friday will be dry and then a few spotty showers will develop over the mountains late Friday night.

Snow levels on Thursday will be around 9,500ft and then bounce between 9,000ft and 9,500ft on Friday. 

Snow will be spotty and won’t amount to much: up to 1” in the mountains and a few flakes above 8,500ft in the valley.

Winds… Afternoon peaks will be in the 15-20mph range.

Temps… Highs on Thursday will be in the low to high 50s and lows will be in the low 20s to low 30s.  Highs on Friday will be in the low to high 50s and lows will be in the mid-20s to mid-30s.

Saturday, Sunday, Monday morning… The low-pressure system off the California coast will finally move east over the weekend. Unfortunately it will weaken as it moves through our area.

Snow levels will hover around 9,000ft on Saturday and then around 8,000ft most of Sunday. The snow level will drop to 7,000ft through Sunday evening, but moisture will be decreasing.

Scattered snow showers will linger through Monday morning, mostly over the mountains.

Snow amounts:

Valley below 8,000ft: a dusting

Valley above 8,000ft: up to 1”

Mountains: 4-8”

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be in the 15-20mph range.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-40s to low 50s. Lows Saturday night will be in the high 20s to high 30s. Lows Sunday night will be in the high teens to high 20s.

NBM total precip to Monday at 11am shows 0.37” in the Pagosa area and up to 0.90” in our mountains. Recent forecast models have trended for a little more precip – yay. My thoughts: I don’t like the trajectory of this system and it will be weakening as it moves through our area.  I expect less precip.
NBM total precip to Monday at 11am shows 0.37” in the Pagosa area and up to 0.90” in our mountains. Recent forecast models have trended for a little more precip – yay.
My thoughts: I don’t like the trajectory of this system and it will be weakening as it moves through our area.  I expect less precip.
 NBM total snowfall to Monday at 11am shows 0.4” in the Pagosa area, 1.4” for Chama, and up to 8” in our mountains. Note that the northwest San Juans, central mountains, and northern mountains are favored – booo hisss
 NBM total snowfall to Monday at 11am shows 0.4” in the Pagosa area, 1.4” for Chama, and up to 8” in our mountains. Note that the northwest San Juans, central mountains, and northern mountains are favored – booo hisss

Monday afternoon through Wednesday… Ridging will rebound along the coast and dry, upper-level northwest flow will prevail. We’ll see lots of blue sky, a warming trend, and no precip.

Winds… Gusts in the afternoon will be in the 15-20mph range.

Temps… Monday highs will be in the low to high 40s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s. Tuesday and Wednesday highs will be in the high 40s to mid-50s and lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s.

My next post will probably be on Friday evening.

– Shawn

Pagosa Weather Blizzard Level Sponsor

Pagosa Weather Storm Sponsor

Picture of Shawn Pro

Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
Get Pagosa Weather Updates

Enter your email address to receive notifications of new posts by email.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Pagosa Weather Disclaimer and Release of Liability

This website makes no guarantees about nor bears any responsibility or liability concerning the accuracy or timeliness of the weather information published on this website. All weather information published on this website is for educational and weather enthusiast purposes only. We do not issue Storm Watches, Warnings or Advisories as that ability falls with the National Weather Service, who is the only institution allowed to issue such warnings by law. We are not in any way linked nor affiliated with the National Weather Service, although we do share information and relay weather watches/ warnings, etc. Use of the information on page is at your own risk/discretion, and we are not responsible for any personal/property damages, injury or death associated with weather forecasts, reports or other information as well as communication exchanged in private messages and/or person.

Terms of Use                  Privacy Policy

 

© 2024 Pagosa Weathe

Website Design by : Brandon