Snow showers this morning up at Wolf Creek – 11/16/2023 at 7:45am
If images fail to load in the email, please click the title of the post. Thanks!
Thursday – 16 Nov 2023 – 9:15am
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 59. The low was 32 at 9:15pm and then slowly rose to 38 by sunrise. Humidity bottomed out yesterday afternoon at 15%.
The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 8mph.
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 48 | 69 / 1943 | 15 | -15 / 1955 |
Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.
Fire updates…
Below are the links for Trail Springs fire, Mill Creek 2 fire, and Bear Creek. There has been more smoke from the Trail Springs fire due to low humidity in the afternoons. However, moisture increased last night and will stay high through the weekend so the fires should be less active.
https://www.facebook.com/sanjuannationalforest
https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident-information/cosjf-trail-springs-fire
Forecast discussion…
Forecast Highlights…
*** Scattered showers Thursday morning. ***
*** Better chance for showers Saturday and Sunday. ***
Thursday and Friday… The ridge has moved to our east. Upper-level southwest flow has pushed more moisture into our area. We’ll see more clouds and scattered showers Thursday morning, mostly over the mountains. Most of Friday will be dry and then a few spotty showers will develop over the mountains late Friday night.
Snow levels on Thursday will be around 9,500ft and then bounce between 9,000ft and 9,500ft on Friday.
Snow will be spotty and won’t amount to much: up to 1” in the mountains and a few flakes above 8,500ft in the valley.
Winds… Afternoon peaks will be in the 15-20mph range.
Temps… Highs on Thursday will be in the low to high 50s and lows will be in the low 20s to low 30s. Highs on Friday will be in the low to high 50s and lows will be in the mid-20s to mid-30s.
Saturday, Sunday, Monday morning… The low-pressure system off the California coast will finally move east over the weekend. Unfortunately it will weaken as it moves through our area.
Snow levels will hover around 9,000ft on Saturday and then around 8,000ft most of Sunday. The snow level will drop to 7,000ft through Sunday evening, but moisture will be decreasing.
Scattered snow showers will linger through Monday morning, mostly over the mountains.
Snow amounts:
Valley below 8,000ft: a dusting
Valley above 8,000ft: up to 1”
Mountains: 4-8”
Winds… Afternoon gusts will be in the 15-20mph range.
Temps… Highs will be in the mid-40s to low 50s. Lows Saturday night will be in the high 20s to high 30s. Lows Sunday night will be in the high teens to high 20s.
My thoughts: I don’t like the trajectory of this system and it will be weakening as it moves through our area. I expect less precip.
Monday afternoon through Wednesday… Ridging will rebound along the coast and dry, upper-level northwest flow will prevail. We’ll see lots of blue sky, a warming trend, and no precip.
Winds… Gusts in the afternoon will be in the 15-20mph range.
Temps… Monday highs will be in the low to high 40s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s. Tuesday and Wednesday highs will be in the high 40s to mid-50s and lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s.
My next post will probably be on Friday evening.
– Shawn
