Spotty showers Thursday and then a few more over the weekend…

Pagosa Weather pup, Tommy, loved playing in the snow up at Lobo Overlook!  – 11/10/2023

Pagosa Weather pup, Tommy, loved playing in the snow up at Lobo Overlook!  – 11/10/2023

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Tuesday – 14 Nov 2023 – 2:30pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 58. The low this morning was 22. Humidity bottomed out yesterday afternoon at 11%.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 9mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
5065 / 199017-10 / 1950

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.

Fire updates…

Below are the links for Trail Springs fire, Mill Creek 2 fire, and Bear Creek.  There has been more smoke from the Trail Springs fire due to low humidity in the afternoons.

https://www.facebook.com/sanjuannationalforest

https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident-information/cosjf-trail-springs-fire

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this afternoon – The ridge is holding strong to our west. The low off the coast doesn’t have much moisture.  The area in green is the only area in the western US with precip and it’s mostly light. Mid and high clouds will start increasing from south and southwest as the ridge nears.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon – The ridge is holding strong to our west. The low off the coast doesn’t have much moisture.  The area in green is the only area in the western US with precip and it’s mostly light. Mid and high clouds will start increasing from the south and southwest as the ridge nears.

There is nothing on radar in our area this afternoon.

Forecast Highlights…

*** Dry through Wednesday. ***

*** Spotty mountain showers Thursday and then Friday night. ***

*** Better chance for showers Saturday and Sunday. ***

The rest of Tuesday through Wednesday… Ridging is currently in control. The ridge will weaken and move to our east by Wednesday afternoon. Mid and high clouds will increase Wednesday. Winds will be light, and we’ll stay dry. Temps will be about 5 degrees above normal.

Winds… Each afternoon winds will peak around 15mph.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-50s to low 60s and lows will be in the low 20s to low 30s.

Thursday and Friday… The ridge will be to our east and upper-level southwest flow will push more moisture into our area. We’ll see more clouds and a few scattered showers on Thursday, mostly over the mountains. Most of Friday will be dry and then a few spotty showers will develop over the mountains late Friday night.

Snow levels on Thursday will be around 9,500ft and then bounce between 9,000ft and 9,500ft on Friday. 

Snow will be spotty and won’t amount to much: up to 1” in the mountains and a few flakes above 8,500ft in the valley.

Winds… Afternoon peaks will be in the 15-20mph range.

Temps… Highs on Thursday will be in the mid-50s to low 60s and lows will be in the low 20s to low 30s.  Highs on Friday will be in the low to high 50s and lows will be in the mid-20s to mid-30s.

Saturday, Sunday, Monday morning… The low-pressure system off the California coast will finally move east over the weekend. Unfortunately it will weaken as it moves through our area.

Snow levels will hover around 9,000ft on Saturday and then around 8,000ft most of Sunday. The snow level will drop to 7,000ft through Sunday evening, but moisture will be decreasing.

Scattered snow showers will linger through Monday morning, mostly over the mountains.

Snow amounts:

Valley below 8,000ft: a dusting

Valley above 8,000ft: up to 1”

Mountains: 4-8”

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be in the 15-20mph range.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-40s to low 50s. Lows Saturday night will be in the high 20s to high 30s. Lows Sunday night will be in the high teens to high 20s.

NBM total precip to Monday at 11am shows 0.18” in the Pagosa area and up to 0.80” in our mountains. The models continue to trend towards less precip – booo hisss
NBM total precip to Monday at 11am shows 0.18” in the Pagosa area and up to 0.80” in our mountains.
The models continue to trend towards less precip – booo hisss
 NBM total snowfall to Monday at 11am shows 0.2” in the Pagosa area, 0.9” for Chama, and up to 8” in our mountains.
 NBM total snowfall to Monday at 11am shows 0.2” in the Pagosa area, 0.9” for Chama, and up to 8” in our mountains.

My next post will be on Thursday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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