Spotty snow showers Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon…

This incredible Pagosa Country sunrise was captured by Kathleen Lutz McFadden – 11/6/2023

This incredible Pagosa Country sunrise was captured by Kathleen Lutz McFadden – 11/6/2023

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Tuesday – 7 Nov 2023 – 6:00pm

*** Come check out our Winter Outlook presentation! ***

When: Thursday, 9 Nov, at 6:30pm

Where: County Extension auditorium at the fairgrounds

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature this afternoon was 61 and yesterday afternoon it was 64. The low this morning was 31. Humidity bottomed out this afternoon at 17% and yesterday it was 16%.

The peak wind at Stevens Field this afternoon was 23mph and yesterday’s peak wind was 24mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
5466 / 1983191 / 1947

Precipitation summary… There has been no precip reported recently.

Fire updates…

The Trail Springs fire, Mill Creek 2 fire, and Bear Creek fire have been a little more active due to warmer temps, low humidity, and gusty afternoon winds.

https://www.facebook.com/sanjuannationalforest

https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident-information/cosjf-trail-springs-fire

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this afternoon – The cold is moving through western Utah this evening. It will weaken as moves through western Colorado Wednesday afternoon.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon – The cold is moving through western Utah this evening. It will weaken as it moves through western Colorado Wednesday afternoon.
Radar this afternoon – There isn’t much precip associated with the cold front.  There will be even less when it moves through western Colorado Wednesday afternoon.
Radar this afternoon – There isn’t much precip associated with the cold front.  There will be even less when it moves through western Colorado Wednesday afternoon.

Forecast Highlights…

*** A cold front will move through late Wednesday afternoon. Expect spotty snow showers Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon. ***

Wednesday and Thursday… The cold front will move through our area late Wednesday afternoon. The temperature will drop 10-15 degrees behind the front Wednesday evening.  More clouds and scattered showers will also move in Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon, mostly over the mountains. Unfortunately there won’t be much moisture and precip.

Snow amounts…

Valley below 8,500: a dusting in the lucky spots

Mountains: 1-2”

Winds… Wednesday afternoon gusts will be in the 20-25mph range. Thursday peak winds will be around 15mph.

Temps… Lows tonight will be in the mid-20s to mid-30s. Highs on Wednesday will be in the high 40s to mid-50s and lows Wednesday night will be in the high teens to high 20s. Thursday highs will be in the mid-40s to low 50s and lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s.

7 Nov 2023 pm NWS snow fcst
NWS snow forecast through Friday at 5am shows a dusting over the higher parts of the valley and 1-2” in our mountains.
NBM 6-hour precip loop from Wednesday at noon to Thursday at midnight – A couple of weak, spotty showers are possible over our mountains tomorrow afternoon. Precip becomes a little more widespread early Thursday morning and then decreases through the day on Thursday. 
NBM 6-hour precip loop from Wednesday at noon to Thursday at midnight – A couple of weak, spotty showers are possible over our mountains tomorrow afternoon. Precip becomes a little more widespread early Thursday morning and then decreases through the day on Thursday. 

Friday through Tuesday… Initially ridging will build over the region and then the flow will become more zonal (west to east). This means no interesting storms are expected during this period. The cloudiest days will be Friday and Tuesday, but we’ll see lots of sun during this period.  We’ll stay dry.

Winds… Each afternoon through Monday, peak winds will be around 15mph. Winds will increase a bit to around 20mph Tuesday afternoon.

Temps… Friday highs will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s and lows will be in the high teens to mid-20s. Saturday highs will be in the high 40s to high 50s and lows will be in the high teens to high 20s. Sunday through Tuesday highs will be in the mid-50s to low 60s and lows will be in the low 20s to low 30s.

The next system?… The pattern wants to get more active the second half of next week.  I’m keeping my excitement in check because of our recent track record, but we’re due!

Euro ensemble 4-day precip valid the morning of 22 Nov to the morning of 12 Nov – It shows 0.72” in the Pagosa area.  Note that CA could get hammered by this pattern.  Is this our first El Nino-like weather system?
Euro ensemble 4-day precip valid the morning of 22 Nov to the morning of 26 Nov – It shows 0.72” in the Pagosa area.  Note that CA could get hammered by this pattern.  Is this our first El Nino-like weather system?

Unless tomorrow’s cold front surprises me, my next post will be on Thursday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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