Turning cooler mid-week with a slight chance for snow/rain mix.

The last of my fall photos from this year…this one taken along Plumtaw road. © 2023-Mark Langford

Sunday 11-5-2023. 8:40am update.

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 65 degrees and the low this morning was 29 degrees. Winds gusted to 7mph yesterday and our humidity bottomed out at 14% yesterday afternoon.

Precipitation summary: There was no precipitation to summarize!

Pagosa Springs historical data for November 5th.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
5574/ 191519-3/ 1991

Fire updates…

The Trail Springs fire, Mill Creek 2 fire, and Bear Creek fire have been less active due to cooler temps and more moisture.

https://www.facebook.com/sanjuannationalforest

https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident-information/cosjf-trail-springs-fire

Screenshot 2023 11 05 083222
A trough and associated cold front will move through on Wednesday, giving us a small chance for rain-snow mix on Wednesday night and early Thursday morning.

Forecast discussion…

Sunny and mild today and tomorrow, then breezy on Tuesday as a trough and associated cold front to our west increase SW winds ahead of the system. On Wednesday afternoon, the trough and associated cold front move through, lowering our temperatures and giving us a slight chance for a rain-snow mix on Wednesday night and early Thursday morning. Temperatures behind the front will trend below average through at least next weekend with lows in the low 20’s and teens and highs in the 40’s.

NBM
The latest NBM model is forecasting 0.13 with the arrival of our next cold front on Wednesday.
Euro 1
The latest Euro ensemble thinks we could see 0.24 inches of precipitation from Wednesday-Thursday.
GFS
The latest GFS ensemble model is forecasting 0.17 of precipitation from Wednesday-Thursday.

5-Day Forecast…

Today-Monday: Mostly sunny with lows in the 20’s and highs in the upper 50’s to low 60’s. Winds SW 5-10, with gusts to 15mph. Cold spots could see lows in the upper teens.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny and turning breezy in the afternoon with lows in the 20’s and highs in the upper 50’s to low 60’s. Winds SW 15-20mph, with gusts to 30mph.

Wednesday: Turning colder with the arrival of a cold front. Mostly sunny with lows in the 20’s and highs in the upper 40’s to low 50’s. Winds SW 10-15mph, with gusts to 25mph. A slight chance for rain-snow mix Wednesday night and early Thursday morning. Snow level dropping below 7000 feet on Thursday morning. Rainfall totals 0-0.15 and snow totals dusting. 2-4 inches of snow for the mountains.

Thursday: Partly cloudy with lows in the upper teens to low 20’s and highs in the mid to upper 40’s. Winds SW 5-10mph, with gusts to 20mph.

Friday-Saturday: Partly cloudy with lows in the upper teens to low 20’s and highs in the mid to upper 40’s. Winds SW 5-10mph, with gusts to 20mph.

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