Lots of sun, light winds, and a warming trend…

Beautiful sunset over Pagosa Peak – 10/29/2023 by Ricki Abney Sr

Beautiful sunset over Pagosa Peak – 10/29/2023 by Ricki Abney Sr

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Monday – 30 Oct 2023 – 8:45am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 49 and the low this morning was 17. The cold spots got down to around 10, but most of us were in the mid to high teens. Humidity bottomed out yesterday at 28%.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 26mph.

Weather Underground temps at 7am were mostly in the mid to high teens.  The cold spots were around 10. (Sorry for cutting some folks out.  We have no control over the data that Weather Underground chooses to display.)
Weather Underground temps at 7am were mostly in the mid to high teens.  The cold spots were around 10. (Sorry for cutting some folks out.  We have no control over the data that Weather Underground chooses to display.)
Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
5569 / 1990216 / 1989

Precipitation summary… There wasn’t much additional precip yesterday. Moisture decreased and the trough weakened as it moved through later in the day.

I estimate that Wolf Creek ended up with 6-8”.

CoCoRaHS 3-day storm totals range from trace to 0.34”. Arleen was the rain lottery winner just north of Turkey Springs.
CoCoRaHS 3-day storm totals range from a trace to 0.34”. Arleen was the rain lottery winner just north of Turkey Springs.

Fire updates…

The Trail Springs fire, Mill Creek 2 fire, and Bear Creek fire have been less active due to cooler temps and more moisture.

https://www.facebook.com/sanjuannationalforest

https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident-information/cosjf-trail-springs-fire

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this morning – A strong ridge along the West Coast will keep storms well to our north for a while.  Upper-level northwest flow over our area will keep us dry.
Water vapor satellite this morning – A strong ridge along the West Coast will keep storms well to our north for a while.  Upper-level northwest flow over our area will keep us dry.

There is nothing on radar in our area this morning.

Forecast Highlights…

*** Chilly mornings, lots of sun, and a warming trend this week. ***

Monday through Sunday… High pressure will build over the southwest US and force storms to track to our north. We will see lots of blue sky with occasional patches of clouds, light winds, and a warming trend.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be in the 10-15mph range. Sunday winds will be a little stronger in the 15-20mph range.

Temps… Today highs will be low to high 40s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s. Tuesday highs will be in the high 40s to mid-50s and lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s. Wednesday highs will be in the low to high 50s and lows will be in the high teens to high 20s. Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday highs will be in the mid-50s to low 60s and lows will be in the low 20s to low 30s.

The next system?… Sadly, I don’t see anything to get excited about for the next 2 weeks.

Euro ensemble 500mb height anomalies from tomorrow morning to 13 Nov – 500mb is roughly 18,000ft and is a good level to track the overall weather pattern.  Warm colors, yellow and orange, indicate high pressure and mostly boring weather. Cool colors, blue and green, indicate low pressure and “fun” weather. This has warm colors over us the entire 2-week period. Little pieces of storm energy could increase clouds and kick up a few showers, but there are no significant storms for us. SAD FACE
Euro ensemble 500mb height anomalies from tomorrow morning to 13 Nov – 500mb is roughly 18,000ft and is a good level to track the overall weather pattern.  Warm colors, yellow and orange, indicate high pressure and mostly boring weather. Cool colors, blue and green, indicate low pressure and “fun” weather.

This has warm colors over us the entire 2-week period. Little pieces of storm energy could increase clouds and kick up a few showers, but there are no significant storms for us.
Euro ensemble 14-day total precip shows 0.17” in the Pagosa area. The storm track is expected to stay to our north.
Euro ensemble 14-day total precip shows 0.17” in the Pagosa area. The storm track is expected to stay to our north.

I’ll do an October Summary and November Outlook on Wednesday. Mark takes over forecasting duties tomorrow.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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