Scattered showers into the afternoon…

It looks more like winter up at Wolf Creek! – Wolf Creek Ski Area cam 10/29/2023 at 9:27am

It looks more like winter up at Wolf Creek! – Wolf Creek Ski Area cam 10/29/2023 at 9:27am

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Sunday – 29 Oct 2023 – 9:45am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 56 and the low this morning was 37. Most of the night the temps were in the low 40s. Humidity bottomed out yesterday at 33%.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 26mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
5775 / 1915236 / 1955

Precipitation summary… Spotty, fast-moving showers and a couple of thunderstorms hit most parts of the county yesterday. We got lots of reports of graupel. 

For Wolf Creek, based on snotel data and a report yesterday from Matt, I estimate that they got 6-8” of snow.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports from a trace to 0.33”. Arleen was the rain lottery winner just north of Turkey Springs.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports from a trace to 0.33”. Arleen was the rain lottery winner just north of Turkey Springs.

Fire updates…

The Trail Springs fire, Mill Creek 2 fire, and Bear Creek fire have been less active due to cooler temps and more moisture.

https://www.facebook.com/sanjuannationalforest

https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident-information/cosjf-trail-springs-fire

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite loop this morning – The main band of moisture moved through our area this morning. However, the trough is still to our west. There isn’t much moisture left with it. The trough will help keep things unstable with spotty, fast-moving showers until it moves through this evening.
Water vapor satellite loop this morning – The main band of moisture moved through our area this morning. However, the trough is still to our west. There isn’t much moisture left with it. The trough will help keep things unstable with spotty, fast-moving showers until it moves through this evening.
Radar this morning – Scattered showers are moving quickly towards the northeast in parts of eastern Archuleta County. Bands of moderate snow are falling across parts of I-25 from Colorado City to just south of Colorado Springs.
Radar this morning – Scattered showers are moving quickly towards the northeast in parts of eastern Archuleta County. Bands of moderate snow are falling across parts of I-25 from Colorado City to just south of Colorado Springs.

Forecast Highlights…

*** The Grand Junction NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the Southwest San Juan Mountains above 9,000ft for a storm total of 5-10” of snow valid until 6pm on Sunday. ***

Rest of today and Monday… The main trough will move through our area Sunday evening. Moisture is decreasing but there’s enough instability to kick up a few spotty showers and a thunderstorm or two.

The best chance for precip is this morning into the early afternoon and then chances decrease. Showers could linger over the mountains until midnight tonight. Patchy fog is possible in the low-lying areas later tonight and tomorrow morning.

Most of Monday will be partly cloudy, dry, and chilly.

Snow levels… Will bounce around between 8,000ft and 8,500ft until Sunday afternoon. As moisture decreases and the chance for snow diminishes Sunday evening, the snow level will drop below 6,500ft.

Additional Snow amounts…

Mountains above 9,000ft: 1-3”

Valley above 8,000ft: up to a half inch – it will be spotty

Valley below 8,000ft: a few snowflakes

Winds… Sunday afternoon gusts will be around 20mph and then Monday afternoon gusts will be around 15mph.

Temps… Sunday highs will be in the mid-40s to low 50s and lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s. Monday highs will be in the low to high 40s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s.

NAM forecast radar from 8am today to midnight tonight shows increasing shower activity during the middle of the day, but it remains spotty. Shower activity decreases during the late afternoon and into the evening, and then ends by midnight.
NAM forecast radar from 8am today to midnight tonight shows increasing shower activity during the middle of the day, but it remains spotty. Shower activity decreases during the late afternoon and into the evening, and then ends by midnight.
29 Oct 2023 am NWS snow to midnight
NWS forecast model snowfall to midnight tonight – Be careful if you have to drive east!
NWS snowfall focused on our area shows just a trace for the higher parts of the valley and 2” for Wolf Creek
NWS snowfall focused on our area shows just a trace for the higher parts of the valley and 2” for Wolf Creek

Tuesday through Friday… High pressure will build back over the southwest US and force storms to track to our north. We will see lots of blue sky with occasional patches of clouds and a warming trend.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be around 15mph.

Temps… Tuesday highs will be in the high 40s to mid-50s and lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s. Wednesday highs will be in the low to high 50s and lows will be in the high teens to high 20s. Thursday and Friday highs will be in the mid-50s to low 60s and lows will be in the low 20s to low 30s.

I’ll do a storm wrap-up post tomorrow morning.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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