Unsettled until Sunday evening…

Fresh snow up at Wolf Creek! – Wolf Creek summit cam on 10/28/2023 at 5:10pm

Fresh snow up at Wolf Creek! – Wolf Creek summit cam on 10/28/2023 at 5:10pm

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Saturday – 28 Oct 2023 – 6:40pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature today was 56 and the low last night was 39. Most of the night the temps were in the low 40s. Humidity bottomed out today at 33%.

The peak wind at Stevens Field this afternoon was 26mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
5973 / 1990235 / 1955

Precipitation summary… Precip reported this morning was light and spotty.  The precip lottery winner was Mark, just north of Hatcher Lake, with 0.05”. We had quite a few reports of graupel and a couple of reports of thunder today.

Fire updates…

The Trail Springs fire, Mill Creek 2 fire, and Bear Creek fire have been less active due to more moisture and cooler temps.

https://www.facebook.com/sanjuannationalforest

https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident-information/cosjf-trail-springs-fire

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this evening – Moisture continues to move through our area from the southwest, but the best storm energy and moisture is staying to our north. The trough, yellow dashed line, will move through our area Sunday evening. Behind the trough, clouds will clear out and it will get colder.
Water vapor satellite this evening – Moisture continues to move through our area from the southwest, but the best storm energy and moisture is staying to our north. The trough, yellow dashed line, will move through our area Sunday evening. Behind the trough, clouds will clear out and it will get colder.
Radar this evening – Scattered showers are persisting across the region.  The heaviest bands of snow have been near the I70 corridor and snow is increasing along the Front Range.
Radar this evening – Scattered showers are persisting across the region.  The heaviest bands of snow have been near the I70 corridor and snow is increasing along the Front Range.

Forecast Highlights…

*** The Grand Junction NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the Southwest San Juan Mountains above 9,000ft for a storm total of 5-10” of snow valid until 6pm on Sunday. ***

Saturday night, Sunday, and Monday… The main trough will move through our area Sunday night. We’ll catch the southern end of the moisture band and the storm energy. We’ll continue to see fast-moving scattered showers and a thunderstorm or two.

The best chance for precip is Saturday night to Sunday afternoon. Showers could linger over the mountains into early Monday morning.

Most of Monday will be partly cloudy, dry, and chilly.

Snow levels… Will be around 9,000ft until sunrise on Sunday and then bounce around between 8,000ft and 8,500ft until Sunday evening. As moisture decreases and the chance for snow diminishes Sunday evening, the snow level will drop below 6,500ft.

Additional Snow amounts…

Mountains above 9,000ft: 2-5”

Valley above 8,000ft: up to 1” – it will be spotty

Valley below 8,000ft: a few snowflakes

Winds… Sunday afternoon gusts will be around 20mph range and then Monday afternoon gusts will be around 15mph.

Temps… Lows Saturday night will be in the high 20s to high 30s. Sunday highs will be in the mid-40s to low 50s and lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s. Monday highs will be in the low to high 40s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s.

NWS forecast snowfall valid 6pm Saturday to 6pm Monday shows a dusting of snow for the higher parts of the valley and up to 6” in our mountains.
NWS forecast snowfall valid 6pm Saturday to 6pm Monday shows a dusting of snow for the higher parts of the valley and up to 6” in our mountains.
NAM forecast radar from 6pm Saturday to midnight tomorrow – Scattered showers will continue to move through area until tomorrow evening.
NAM forecast radar from 6pm Saturday to midnight tomorrow – Scattered showers will continue to move through area until tomorrow evening.

Tuesday through Friday… High pressure will build back over the southwest US and force storms to track to our north. We will see lots of blue sky with occasional patches of clouds and a warming trend.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be around 15mph.

Temps… Tuesday and Wednesday highs will be in the high 40s to mid-50s and lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s. Thursday and Friday highs will be in the low to high 50s and lows will be in the high teens to high 20s.

I’ll do another post tomorrow.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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