Blustery with scattered showers this weekend…

NWS snowfall looks good for most of the Colorado mountains!

NWS snowfall looks good for most of the Colorado mountains!

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Friday – 27 Oct 2023 – 4:30pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday was 61 and the low this morning was 31. Humidity bottomed out yesterday afternoon at 28%.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 26mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
5973 / 1910228 / 1913

Precipitation summary… The last measurable precip for most of us was on 3 Oct.

Fire updates…

The Trail Springs fire, Mill Creek 2 fire, and Bear Creek fire are all active.

https://www.facebook.com/sanjuannationalforest

https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident-information/cosjf-trail-springs-fire

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this afternoon – The main trough is beginning to take shape over southeast BC.  It will deepen as it moves south (the yellow arrows). The green arrows indicate the southwest flow that push moisture over Colorado ahead of the trough.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon – The main trough is beginning to take shape over southeast BC.  It will deepen as it moves south (the yellow arrows). The green arrows indicate the southwest flow that will push moisture over Colorado ahead of the trough.

There is nothing on radar in our area this afternoon.

Forecast Highlights…

*** Tomorrow’s Halloween Hootenanny will be blustery with mostly cloudy skies, gusty winds, and scattered showers. ***

*** Wolf Creek Pass could be slick by sunrise tomorrow. ***

*** The Grand Junction NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the Southwest San Juan Mountains above 9,000ft for 5-10” of snow between midnight tonight and 6pm on Sunday. ***

Friday night, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday… The first trough will move through Saturday and then the main trough will move through our area Sunday night. We’ll catch the southern end of the moisture band and the storm energy.

We’ll see more clouds and a chance for spotty showers starting early Saturday morning to early Monday morning, especially over the mountains.  The best chance for precip is Saturday morning and then again Saturday night to late Sunday evening. Showers could linger over the mountains into Monday morning.

Most of Monday will be partly cloudy, dry, and chilly.

Snow levels… Will fluctuate between 9,500ft and 10,000ft into Saturday evening. They’ll drop to 8,500ft by sunrise on Sunday and then bounce around between 7,500ft and 8,500ft to Sunday evening. As moisture decreases late Sunday evening, the snow level will drop below 6,500ft.

Snow amounts…

Mountains above 9,000ft: 4-8”

Valley above 8,000ft: up to 1” – it will be spotty

Valley below 8,000ft: a few snowflakes

Winds… Saturday afternoon gusts will be 25-30mph out of the southwest. Sunday afternoon gusts will be in the 15-20mph range and then Monday afternoon gusts will be around 15mph.

Temps… Saturday highs will be near 50 to the high 50s and lows will be in the high 20s to high 30s. Sunday highs will be in the mid-40s to low 50s and lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s. Monday highs will be in the low to high 40s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s.

NWS total precip loop to Monday at 6am indicates 0.21” for Pagosa and up to 1.20” for our mountains.
NWS total precip loop to Monday at 6am indicates 0.21” for Pagosa and up to 1.20” for our mountains.
NWS total snowfall loop to Monday at 6am indicates 0.2” for Pagosa and up to 10” for our mountains.
NWS total snowfall loop to Monday at 6am indicates 0.2” for Pagosa and up to 10” for our mountains.

Tuesday through Friday… High pressure will build back over the southwest US and force storms to track to our north. We will see lots of blue skies with occasional patches of clouds and a warming trend.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be around 15mph.

Temps… Tuesday and Wednesday highs will be in the high 40s to mid-50s and lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s. Thursday and Friday highs will be in the low to high 50s and lows will be in the high teens to high 20s.

I’ll do another post tomorrow.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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