Weather pup, Tommy, and the Trail Springs fire – Pic taken 10/23/2023
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Wednesday – 25 Oct 2023 – 2:50pm
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday was 61 and the low this morning was 36. Humidity bottomed out yesterday afternoon at 28%.
The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 21mph.
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 60 | 75 / 1988 | 22 | 8 / 1975 |
Precipitation summary… A few light spotty showers fell in a couple of places. Most people reported zero or a trace. The rain lottery winner was Mike in Holiday Acres with 0.05” – just enough to briefly wet the ground. That system was a dud.
The last measurable precip for most of us was on 3 Oct.
Fire updates…
The Trail Springs fire, Mill Creek 2 fire, and Bear Creek fire are all active.
https://www.facebook.com/sanjuannationalforest
https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident-information/cosjf-trail-springs-fire
Forecast discussion…
There is nothing on radar in our area this afternoon.
Forecast Highlights…
*** Cooler temps, higher humidities, and gusty afternoon winds ***
*** Spotty showers possible Friday night to Monday morning ***
Wednesday and Thursday… The first system has moved to our southeast. We’ll see a few clouds and no precip.
Winds… Afternoon gusts will be in the 15-25mph range.
Temps… Highs today will be in the low to high 60s and lows will be in the mid-20s to mid-30s. Thursday will be a little cooler with highs in the mid-50 to low 60s and lows will be in the mid-20s to mid-30s.
Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday… Broad cyclonic (low-pressure) flow will set up and push minor pieces of energy through the region. We’ll catch the tail-end of the main trough as it moves through our area Sunday night.
We’ll see more clouds and a chance for spotty showers starting late Friday evening to early Monday morning, especially over the mountains. The best chance for precip is Friday night and then again Saturday night to late Sunday evening. Showers could linger over the mountains into Monday morning. Unfortunately it doesn’t look too promising.
Most of Monday will be partly cloudy, dry, and chilly.
Snow levels… Will start around 10,000ft Friday, drop to 9,000ft Saturday morning, 8,000ft Sunday morning, and finally to 7,000ft Sunday evening.
Snow amounts…
Mountains above 9,000ft: 2-5”
Valley above 8,000ft: up to 1” – it will be spotty
Valley below 8,000ft: a few snowflakes
I think Aspen, Crested Butte, and maybe the I-70 ski resorts will do well with this system.
Winds… Friday afternoon gusts will be 20-30mph out of the southwest. *** Saturday afternoon gusts will be 25-35mph out of the southwest. *** Sunday and Monday afternoon gusts will be in the 15-20mph range.
Temps… Friday and Saturday highs will be in the mid-50s to low 60s and lows will be in the mid-20s to mid-30s. Sunday and Monday highs will be in the mid-40s to low 50s and lows will be in the high teens to mid-20s.
Note the heavier precip over the central and northern mountains.
My thoughts… I agree with the overall precip pattern on the Euro. However, I do not expect much moisture to get to our side of the mountains, so I agree with the NBM amounts. If the system dips a little farther south, we could see higher precip amounts, but my expectations are low.
My next post will be on Friday.
– Shawn
One Response
Hi there. Thank you for all the updates, your awesome. What are your thoughts for snow around mid December? Is it typically dry or will there be snow? Planning a vacation in Pegosa, wanting to comd home for Christmas