Just scraps for us…

Weather pup, Tommy, and the Trail Springs fire – Pic taken 10/23/2023

Weather pup, Tommy, and the Trail Springs fire – Pic taken 10/23/2023

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Wednesday – 25 Oct 2023 – 2:50pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday was 61 and the low this morning was 36. Humidity bottomed out yesterday afternoon at 28%.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 21mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6075 / 1988228 / 1975

Precipitation summary… A few light spotty showers fell in a couple of places. Most people reported zero or a trace.  The rain lottery winner was Mike in Holiday Acres with 0.05” – just enough to briefly wet the ground. That system was a dud.

The last measurable precip for most of us was on 3 Oct.

Fire updates…

The Trail Springs fire, Mill Creek 2 fire, and Bear Creek fire are all active.

https://www.facebook.com/sanjuannationalforest

https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident-information/cosjf-trail-springs-fire

Trail Springs fire closures – Turkey Springs Road is open but trails and roads west of Turkey Springs Road are closed.
Trail Springs fire closures – Turkey Springs Road is open but trails and roads west of Turkey Springs Road are closed.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this afternoon – The first low is to our southeast and wont impact us. The low over WA will move east and stay to our north. Another low will develop in the same area Thursday night and dip down into northern UT and northern CO Saturday evening to Sunday evening. That’s our best chance for showers but we’ll just get scraps.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon – The first low is to our southeast and wont impact us. The low over WA will move east and stay to our north. Another low will develop in the same area Thursday night and dip down into northern UT and northern CO Saturday evening to Sunday evening. That’s our best chance for showers but we’ll just get scraps.

There is nothing on radar in our area this afternoon.

Forecast Highlights…

*** Cooler temps, higher humidities, and gusty afternoon winds ***

*** Spotty showers possible Friday night to Monday morning ***

Wednesday and Thursday… The first system has moved to our southeast.  We’ll see a few clouds and no precip.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be in the 15-25mph range.

Temps… Highs today will be in the low to high 60s and lows will be in the mid-20s to mid-30s. Thursday will be a little cooler with highs in the mid-50 to low 60s and lows will be in the mid-20s to mid-30s.

Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday… Broad cyclonic (low-pressure) flow will set up and push minor pieces of energy through the region.  We’ll catch the tail-end of the main trough as it moves through our area Sunday night.

We’ll see more clouds and a chance for spotty showers starting late Friday evening to early Monday morning, especially over the mountains.  The best chance for precip is Friday night and then again Saturday night to late Sunday evening. Showers could linger over the mountains into Monday morning. Unfortunately it doesn’t look too promising.

Most of Monday will be partly cloudy, dry, and chilly.

Snow levels… Will start around 10,000ft Friday, drop to 9,000ft Saturday morning, 8,000ft Sunday morning, and finally to 7,000ft Sunday evening.

Snow amounts…

Mountains above 9,000ft: 2-5”

Valley above 8,000ft: up to 1” – it will be spotty

Valley below 8,000ft: a few snowflakes

 I think Aspen, Crested Butte, and maybe the I-70 ski resorts will do well with this system.

Winds… Friday afternoon gusts will be 20-30mph out of the southwest.  *** Saturday afternoon gusts will be 25-35mph out of the southwest. *** Sunday and Monday afternoon gusts will be in the 15-20mph range.

Temps… Friday and Saturday highs will be in the mid-50s to low 60s and lows will be in the mid-20s to mid-30s. Sunday and Monday highs will be in the mid-40s to low 50s and lows will be in the high teens to mid-20s.

Euro precip to Monday at 6am on the left indicates 0.26” for Pagosa and up to 0.90” for our mountains. Euro snowfall shows 0.80” for Pagosa and up to 10” for our mountains. Note the heavier precip over the central and northern mountains.
Euro precip to Monday at 6am on the left indicates 0.26” for Pagosa and up to 0.90” for our mountains. Euro snowfall shows 0.80” for Pagosa and up to 10” for our mountains.
Note the heavier precip over the central and northern mountains.
NBM precip to Monday at 6am on the left indicates 0.07” for Pagosa and up to 0.50” for our mountains. Euro snowfall shows a trace for Pagosa and up to 5” for our mountains.
NBM precip to Monday at 6am on the left indicates 0.07” for Pagosa and up to 0.50” for our mountains. NBM snowfall shows a trace for Pagosa and up to 5” for our mountains.

My thoughts… I agree with the overall precip pattern on the Euro.  However, I do not expect much moisture to get to our side of the mountains, so I agree with the NBM amounts. If the system dips a little farther south, we could see higher precip amounts, but my expectations are low.

My next post will be on Friday.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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One Response

  1. Hi there. Thank you for all the updates, your awesome. What are your thoughts for snow around mid December? Is it typically dry or will there be snow? Planning a vacation in Pegosa, wanting to comd home for Christmas

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