Great fall weather through Tuesday…

Arleen and Tommy engulfed in bright fall colors – Pic taken 10/5/2023

Arleen and Tommy engulfed in bright fall colors – Pic taken 10/4/2023

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Thursday – 5 Oct 2023 – 7:50pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature today was 69 and the low this morning was 32. Humidity bottomed out this afternoon at 20%.

There were quite a few spots in the upper 20s this morning, including downtown.

The peak wind at Stevens Field this afternoon was 10mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6880 / 19873013 / 1908

Precipitation summary… There has been no measurable precip reported recently.

Fire updates…

Quartz Ridge Fire link

Bear Creek Fire link

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this evening – It’s dry across much of the western US.  The jet stream is flowing up and over the ridge and then out of the northwest into the Rocky Mountain region.
Water vapor satellite this evening – It’s dry across much of the western US.  The jet stream is flowing up and over the ridge and then out of the northwest into the Rocky Mountain region.

There is no rain indicated on radar in our area this evening.

Forecast Highlights…

*** The cold spots will dip below freezing each night. ***

Tonight through Tuesday afternoon… High pressure over the west US will give us lots of sun, dry weather, and pleasant fall temps.

Winds… Will peak around 15mph in the afternoons. Winds Tuesday afternoon will be a little stronger in the 15-20mph range.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-60s to mid-70s and lows will be in the high 20s to high 30s.

Tuesday night through Thursday afternoon… A weak trough will move through from the northwest.  Northwest is not a favorable trajectory for us and there won’t be much moisture, so my expectations are low. We’ll see a few more clouds and spotty showers, mostly over the mountains.

Winds… Gusts Wednesday afternoon will be in the 20-25mph range and then they’ll drop a little Thursday into the 15-20mph range.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-50s to low 60s and lows will be in the high 20s to high 30s.

NBM total precip loop from 10 Oct at 6pm to late evening on 12 Oct – Light showers move into western CO Tuesday night and persist on and off through Thursday afternoon.  This forecast expects 0.13” for the Pagosa area and up to 0.50” for our mountains.  At this point, I expect less precip and it will be spotty.
NBM total precip loop from 10 Oct at 6pm to late evening on 12 Oct – Light showers move into western CO Tuesday night and persist on and off through Thursday afternoon.  This forecast expects 0.13” for the Pagosa area and up to 0.50” for our mountains.
At this point, I expect less precip and it will be spotty.

My next forecast post will be on Saturday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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