Dry and pleasant for a while…

Tommy admiring an incredible fall scene – Pic taken 10/3/2023

Tommy admiring an incredible fall scene – Pic taken 10/3/2023

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Tuesday – 3 Oct 2023 – 3:30pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday was 65 and the low this morning was 40. Humidity bottomed out yesterday afternoon at 29%.

The peak wind at Stevens Field Saturday yesterday afternoon was 38mph and the peak wind up at Lobo Overlook was 70mph at 7:35am.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6881 / 19463221 / 1961

Precipitation summary… We got another good soaking yesterday.  Below are 24-hour precip reports and 2-day precip totals.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports ranged from 0.23” to 0.38”. Our two CoCoRaHS observers in town had the highest amounts!
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports ranged from 0.23” to 0.38”. Our two CoCoRaHS observers in town had the highest amounts!
CoCoRaHS 2-day precip totals range from 0.32” to 0.84”. Hillary’s rain forest near Chromo was the big rain lottery winner!
CoCoRaHS 2-day precip totals range from 0.32” to 0.84”. Hillary’s rain forest near Chromo was the big rain lottery winner!

Fire updates…

Quartz Ridge Fire link

Bear Creek Fire link

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this afternoon – The trough moved through our area this morning. Drier northwest flow is moving into our region around the big ridge off the West Coast.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon – The trough moved through our area this morning. Drier northwest flow is moving into our region around the big ridge off the West Coast.

There is no rain indicated on radar in our area this afternoon.

Forecast Highlights…

*** A HARD FREEZE is possible tonight. ***

The rest of today… The trough moved through this morning.  Scattered clouds are hanging on, but I don’t expect any more precip.

Clouds will clear tonight and give us our first chance for a hard freeze. Fog is possible in low-lying areas around sunrise Wednesday morning.

Winds… Afternoon winds will peak in the 15-20mph range.

Temps… Lows tonight will be in the mid-20s to mid-30s.

Wednesday through Sunday… High pressure will build over the west US and give us lots of sun, dry weather, and a gradual warming trend.

Winds… Will peak around 15mph each afternoon.

Temps… Wednesday highs will be in the high 50s to mid-60s and lows will be in the high 20s to high 30s.  Thursday through Sunday highs will be in the mid-60s to low 70s and lows will be in the high 20s to high 30s.

The next weather system?… A weak system might impact us 11-12 Oct. At this point, it doesn’t look too impressive.

On the left is the Euro ensemble 500mb vorticity on 12 Oct at 6am and on the right is Euro ensemble 3-day precip for 11-13 Oct. Vorticity is the spinning of the air and can be an indication of storm energy. The shades of gray on the left map indicate positive vorticity and possible storm energy.  The red dashed line is the trough. On the right, this forecast model expects 0.11” of precip in the Pagosa area.  At this point, this looks like a weak system that doesn’t have much moisture. Let’s hope it dips farther south and picks up more moisture!
On the left is the Euro ensemble 500mb vorticity on 12 Oct at 6am and on the right is Euro ensemble 3-day precip for 11-13 Oct.

Vorticity is the spinning of the air and can be an indication of storm energy. The shades of gray on the left map indicate positive vorticity and possible storm energy.  The red dashed line is the trough.

On the right, this forecast model expects 0.11” of precip in the Pagosa area.  At this point, this looks like a weak system that doesn’t have much moisture. Let’s hope it dips farther south and picks up more moisture!

Please check out Josh Kurz’s presentation about our LOCAL WATER SUPPLY.

Where: Ruby Sisson Library

When: October 5th from 6:00-7:15pm

We’ve seen this presentation and HIGHLY RECOMMEND it! How does our local municipal and agricultural water system work? What are the threats to our water supply? Is our current water supply adequate to meet the needs of future generations? Josh has all kinds of interesting data that answers these questions.

My next forecast post will be on Thursday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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