Tommy admiring an incredible fall scene – Pic taken 10/3/2023
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Tuesday – 3 Oct 2023 – 3:30pm
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday was 65 and the low this morning was 40. Humidity bottomed out yesterday afternoon at 29%.
The peak wind at Stevens Field Saturday yesterday afternoon was 38mph and the peak wind up at Lobo Overlook was 70mph at 7:35am.
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 68 | 81 / 1946 | 32 | 21 / 1961 |
Precipitation summary… We got another good soaking yesterday. Below are 24-hour precip reports and 2-day precip totals.
Fire updates…
Quartz Ridge Fire link
Bear Creek Fire link
Forecast discussion…
There is no rain indicated on radar in our area this afternoon.
Forecast Highlights…
*** A HARD FREEZE is possible tonight. ***
The rest of today… The trough moved through this morning. Scattered clouds are hanging on, but I don’t expect any more precip.
Clouds will clear tonight and give us our first chance for a hard freeze. Fog is possible in low-lying areas around sunrise Wednesday morning.
Winds… Afternoon winds will peak in the 15-20mph range.
Temps… Lows tonight will be in the mid-20s to mid-30s.
Wednesday through Sunday… High pressure will build over the west US and give us lots of sun, dry weather, and a gradual warming trend.
Winds… Will peak around 15mph each afternoon.
Temps… Wednesday highs will be in the high 50s to mid-60s and lows will be in the high 20s to high 30s. Thursday through Sunday highs will be in the mid-60s to low 70s and lows will be in the high 20s to high 30s.
The next weather system?… A weak system might impact us 11-12 Oct. At this point, it doesn’t look too impressive.
Vorticity is the spinning of the air and can be an indication of storm energy. The shades of gray on the left map indicate positive vorticity and possible storm energy. The red dashed line is the trough.
On the right, this forecast model expects 0.11” of precip in the Pagosa area. At this point, this looks like a weak system that doesn’t have much moisture. Let’s hope it dips farther south and picks up more moisture!
Please check out Josh Kurz’s presentation about our LOCAL WATER SUPPLY.
Where: Ruby Sisson Library
When: October 5th from 6:00-7:15pm
We’ve seen this presentation and HIGHLY RECOMMEND it! How does our local municipal and agricultural water system work? What are the threats to our water supply? Is our current water supply adequate to meet the needs of future generations? Josh has all kinds of interesting data that answers these questions.
My next forecast post will be on Thursday.
– Shawn
