Active weather through Monday night…

A rainbow yesterday evening near Pagosa Peak – Pic taken 10/1/2023

A rainbow yesterday evening near Pagosa Peak – Pic taken 10/1/2023

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Monday – 2 Oct 2023 – 9:30am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday was 69 and the low this morning was 49. Humidity bottomed out yesterday afternoon at 22%.

The peak wind at Stevens Field Saturday afternoon was 40mph and the peak wind up at Lobo Overlook was 59mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6984 / 19343218 / 1950

Precipitation summary… Multiple thunderstorms moved through the county last night. It was quite the show!

CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports ranged from 0.09” to 0.38”. Mark was the rain lottery winner just north of Hatcher Lake.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports ranged from 0.09” to 0.38”. Mark was the rain lottery winner just north of Hatcher Lake.

Fire updates…

Quartz Ridge Fire link

Bear Creek Fire link

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this morning – The main trough is to our west and is moving slowly east.  It will move through our area during the early morning hours. Until then, our weather will remain active. 
Water vapor satellite this morning – The main trough is to our west and is moving slowly east.  It will move through our area during the early morning hours. Until then, our weather will remain active. 
Radar this morning –  There are two bands of showers that are moving slowly east. Individual showers and thunderstorms are moving 50mph towards the north-northeast.  At 8:30am this morning, the west 2/3 of the county was in a lull while the east 1/3 of the county was still active.
Radar this morning –  There are two bands of showers that are moving slowly east. Individual showers and thunderstorms are moving 50mph towards the north-northeast.  At 8:30am this morning, the west 2/3 of the county was in a lull while the east 1/3 of the county was still active.

Forecast Highlights…

*** Mostly cloudy with periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms, small hail, and gusty winds through tonight. ***

*** A HARD FREEZE is possible Tuesday night. ***

Through tonight… Our weather will stay active until the trough moves through in the early morning hours.  This morning we’ll have a brief lull and then showers and thunderstorms will ramp up during the afternoon. Activity will become more scattered during the evening and taper off further after midnight. Low stratus clouds and fog are possible in low-lying areas tomorrow morning.

Precip total in the valley: 0.10” to 0.30” of rain. It will fall in spurts, heavy for brief periods.

Snow levels… Monday morning snow levels are still 12,000-12,500ft. They’ll drop to 11,000ft shortly after sunset this evening and then to 9,500ft by Tuesday morning.

Snow amounts:

– Above 12,000ft: 2-4”

– 11,000-12,000ft: 1-2”

– Down to 9,500ft Monday night: a dusting

– High parts of the valley early Tuesday morning:  A few “rainflakes” but there won’t be any accumulation

Winds… Monday afternoon gusts will be in the 30-35mph range. Gusts in the mountains will be in the 45-55mph range. Higher gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-50s to low 60s and lows will be in the high 20s to high 30s.

NAM forecast radar 11am to midnight tonight – Bands of showers and thunderstorms move through into the evening. Just a few spotty showers persist over the mountains at the end of the loop.
NAM forecast radar 11am to midnight tonight – Bands of showers and thunderstorms move through into the evening. Just a few spotty showers persist over the mountains at the end of the loop.
NWS precip indicates 0.22” for the Pagosa  area, 0.30” for Chama, and up to 1” in the South San Juan Mountains. For the 13’ers over there, Montezuma and Summit Peaks, 1” of liquid equivalent could result in 6-8” of snow!
NWS precip indicates 0.22” for the Pagosa  area, 0.30” for Chama, and up to 1” in the South San Juan Mountains. For the 13’ers over there, Montezuma and Summit Peaks, 1” of liquid equivalent could result in 6-8” of snow!

Tuesday… The trough will slowly push to our east during the morning.  There will be enough residual moisture and instability to kick up a few spotty showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon, mostly over the mountains. The snow level will be around 9,500ft, but I don’t expect much precip.

Clouds will clear Tuesday night and give us our first chance for a hard freeze. Fog is possible in low-lying areas around sunrise Wednesday morning.

Winds… Afternoon winds will peak in the 15-20mph range.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-50s to mid-60s, and lows will be in the mid-20s to mid-30s.

Wednesday, Thursday, Friday… High pressure will build over the west US and give us lots of sun, dry weather, and a gradual warming trend.

Winds… Will peak around 15mph each afternoon.

Temps… Wednesday highs will be in the high 50s to mid-60s and lows will be in the high 20s to high 30s.  Thursday and Friday highs will be in the low 60s to low 70s and lows will be in the high 20s to high 30s.

Please check out Josh Kurz’s presentation about our LOCAL WATER SUPPLY.

Where: Ruby Sisson Library

When: October 5th from 6:00-7:15pm

We’ve seen this presentation and HIGHLY RECOMMEND it! How does our local municipal and agricultural water system work? What are the threats to our water supply? Is our current water supply adequate to meet the needs of future generations? Josh has all kinds of interesting data that answers these questions.

Also, make sure to check out the September Summary and October OutlookLINK.

My next forecast post will be tomorrow.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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