Windy with scattered showers and thunderstorms through Monday night…

Hail on Cimarrona Peak. How do I know?  The temp at 11,800ft was 46 and the snow level was above 12,500ft. – Pic taken 9/30/2023

Hail on Cimarrona Peak. How do I know?  The temp at 11,800ft was 46 and the snow level was above 12,500ft. – Pic taken 9/30/2023

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Sunday – 1 Oct 2023 – 4pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday was 75 and the low this morning was 52. Humidity bottomed out yesterday afternoon at 16%.

The peak wind at Stevens Field Saturday afternoon was 62mph and the peak wind up at Lobo Overlook was 56mph. A strong thunderstorm moved through parts of Archuleta County yesterday around 5:45pm and caused 50-60mph winds.

So far on Sunday, the peak wind at the airfield has been 40mph and up at Lobo Overlook the peak has been 59mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6982 / 19803220 / 1965

Precipitation summary… Multiple showers and thunderstorms moved quickly through parts of the county yesterday afternoon.  Moved of us got more wind than rain. Pea-size hail fell in a few spots too.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports ranged from 0.02” to 0.11”. Sarah was the rain lottery winner just east of Echo Canyon Reservoir.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports ranged from 0.02” to 0.11”. Sarah was the rain lottery winner just east of Echo Canyon Reservoir.

Fire updates…

Quartz Ridge Fire link

Bear Creek Fire link

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite loop this afternoon – It’s an interesting loop!  There are rows and rows of gravity wave clouds across the Four Corners region.  To learn more about this interesting meteorological phenomenon, check out this LINK.  The low is spinning over NV and will move slowly east. Clouds and moisture will increase tonight as the low moves into western UT.
Water vapor satellite loop this afternoon – It’s an interesting loop!  There are rows and rows of gravity wave clouds across the Four Corners region.  To learn more about this interesting meteorological phenomenon, check out this LINK
The low is spinning over NV and will move slowly east. Clouds and moisture will increase tonight as the low moves into western UT.
Radar this afternoon – Spotty showers are moving quickly towards the north-northeast.
Radar this afternoon – Spotty showers are moving quickly towards the north-northeast.

Forecast Highlights…

*** Tonight through Monday night there will be more clouds, periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms, small hail, and gusty winds. ***

*** A HARD FREEZE is possible Tuesday night. ***

Sunday night through Monday night… A double barrel low-pressure system will dip down into the Great Basin.  Round 2 is Sunday night through Monday night. We’ll see more clouds, scattered showers, thunderstorms, small hail, and gusty winds. The best chances for precip are early tomorrow morning and again Monday afternoon.

Precip total in the valley: 0.10” to 0.30” of rain. It will fall in spurts and be spotty.

Snow levels… Sunday afternoon snow levels are 12,000-12,500ft. They’ll drop to 11,500ft by Monday morning and then to 9,500ft by Tuesday morning.

Snow amounts:

– Above 12,000ft: 2-4”

– 11,000-12,000ft: 1-2”

– Down to 9,500ft Monday night: a dusting

– High parts of the valley early Tuesday morning:  A few “rainflakes” but there won’t be any accumulation

Winds… This evening winds will drop below 30mph after sunset and drop below 20mph by midnight. Monday afternoon gusts will be in the 30-40mph range. Gusts in the mountains will be in the 45-55mph range.

Temps… Lows tonight will be in the high 30s to high 40s. Monday highs will be in the mid-50s to low 60s and lows will be in the high 20s to high 30s.

NWS precip indicates 0.16” for the Pagosa  area, 0.23” for Chama, and up to 0.60” in our mountains.
NWS precip indicates 0.16” for the Pagosa  area, 0.23” for Chama, and up to 0.60” in our mountains.

Tuesday… The trough will move through in the morning.  There will be enough residual moisture and instability to kick up a few spotty showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon, mostly over the mountains. The snow level will be around 9,500ft, but I don’t expect much precip. Clouds will clear Tuesday night and give us our first chance for a hard freeze.

Winds… Afternoon winds will peak in the 15-20mph range.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-50s to mid-60s, and lows will be in the mid-20s to mid-30s.

Wednesday, Thursday, Friday… High pressure will build over the west US and give us lots of sun, dry weather, and average temps.

Winds… Will peak around 15mph each afternoon.

Temps… Highs will be in the low 60s to low 70s and lows will be in the high 20s to high 30s.

Please check out Josh Kurz’s presentation about our LOCAL WATER SUPPLY.

Where: Ruby Sisson Library

When: October 5th from 6:00-7:15pm

We’ve seen this presentation and HIGHLY RECOMMEND it! How does our local municipal and agricultural water system work? What are the threats to our water supply? Is our current water supply adequate to meet the needs of future generations? Josh has all kinds of interesting data that answers these questions.

My next forecast post will be tomorrow.  Plus, I plan to do the September Summary/October Outlook this evening.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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