Dry with seasonal temperatures for the next 5 days…

Coyote Hill

A pre-sunrise cumulus cloud drifts over Coyote Hill. ©-2023 Mark Langford

Friday 9-22-2023. 9:15am update.

Chili Cha Cha Hats
Weather for the Mountain Chile Cha Cha!
– Remember to stop by & buy your Pagosa Weather HAT! Arleen, Shawn & Mark will be there selling the Pagosa Weather hats for $20 each.
– The 17th Annual Mountain Chile Cha Cha will be this Saturday, September 23rd, at the Town Park at Hermosa St and Hot Springs Blvd. The highlight is the Patty Aragon Green Chile Classic cook-off.

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 71 degrees and the low this morning was 37 degrees. Some of us in the cold spots saw our first lows in the 20’s this morning! My low, about a mile north of Hatcher Lake, was 27 degrees and the weather sensor on the Upper Piedra, dropped to 26 degrees. Winds gusted to 23mph yesterday and our humidity bottomed out at 18% yesterday afternoon.

Precipitation summary: There was no precipitation to summarize from yesterday.

Pagosa Springs historical data for September 22nd.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7285/ 19453423/ 1983

Here’s the latest on our nearby fires:

Quartz Ridge Fire link

Bear Creek Fire link

Screenshot 2023 09 22 084154
Depending on what part of town you live in, we are in between a moderate or a severe drought.
Screenshot 2023 09 22 080854
A cut-off low in the NW will move ENE today into the Northern Plains, keeping our mid-level winds out of the west and eventually NW by tomorrow. This will keep us in dry air, as indicated by the yellow tones on this satellite imagery.

Forecast discussion…

A cut-off low over the Pacific NW will trek ENE over the next 24 hours into the Northern Plains, but moisture with this system and associated short waves, will stay to our north. Look for breezy afternoons and cold mornings over the few days with zero odds for rain. As was the case this morning, if you live in a Little Siberian cold spot, expect to see a hard freeze on Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures should moderate by early next week as high pressure builds over our area. A couple of the models are forecasting a chance for rain for the first two days of October, but with that being over a week away, I’m not going to get too optimistic yet.

Screenshot 2023 09 22 080530
The latest 5-Day GFS model is predicting zero rainfall for us.
Screenshot 2023 09 22 080308
The latest 5-Day NBM model is predicting zero rainfall for us.

5-Day Forecast…

The rest of the day: Partly cloudy and breezy in the afternoon highs in upper 60’s to low 70’s. Winds SW 15-20, with gusts to 25mph.

Saturday: Partly cloudy with lows in the low to upper 30’s and highs in the mid to upper 60’s. Winds SW 10-15, with gusts to 20mph. Cold spots could see lows in the upper 20’s.

Sunday: Mostly sunny with lows in the low to upper 30’s and highs in low to mid 70’s. Winds SW 10-15, with gusts to 20mph. Cold spots could see lows in the upper 20’s.

Monday-Wednesday: Mostly sunny with lows in the 30’s to low 40’s and highs in the low to mid 70’s. Winds SW 10-15, with gusts to 20mph.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

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