Another chance for rain, then breezy, cooler and dry.

Lightning

I shot this double bolt of lightning striking Pagosa Peak on Monday afternoon. © 2023-Mark Langford

Wednesday 9-20-2023. 1:30pm update.

Chili Cha Cha Hats
Weather for the Mountain Chile Cha Cha!
– Remember to stop by & buy your Pagosa Weather HAT! Arleen, Shawn & Mark will be there selling the Pagosa Weather hats for $20 each.
– The 17th Annual Mountain Chile Cha Cha will be this Saturday, September 23rd, at the Town Park at Hermosa St and Hot Springs Blvd. The highlight is the Patty Aragon Green Chile Classic cook-off.

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 71 degrees and the low this morning was 37 degrees. Some of us in the cold spots saw frost and a freeze. Winds gusted to 23mph yesterday and our humidity bottomed out at 25% yesterday afternoon.

Precipitation summary: While most of the heavier rain stayed to our west, most of us managed to find between 0.05 and 0.09 in our rain gauges, with the exception of 0.44 inches to the NE of town, on the road to Wolf Creek Pass. Once again, we saw more activity than was forecast from the models and once again, none of us is complaining!

Screenshot 2023 09 20 104350
24hr COCORAHS reports ranged mainly from 0-0.09 with the exception of 0.44 inches, NE of town.

Pagosa Springs historical data for September 20th.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7283/ 19843518/ 1971

Here’s the latest on our nearby fires:

Quartz Ridge Fire link

Bear Creek Fire link

Screenshot 2023 09 20 131502
A low-pressure moving NE out of southern California will merge with a trough in the Pacific NW over the next 48 hours. Thanks to the low, we will see an uptick in moisture in the mid-levels tonight and early tomorrow morning, giving us a chance for more showers and thunderstorms.

Forecast discussion…

Once again it was great to see the models underperform as more afternoon activity developed than was forecast, especially to our west. A low-pressure moving NE out of southern California will merge with a trough in the Pacific NW over the next 48 hours. Thanks to the low, we will see an uptick in moisture in the mid-levels tonight and early tomorrow morning, giving us a chance for more showers and thunderstorms. As the low passes to the NE tomorrow, look for breezy conditions in the afternoon with wind gusts reaching 30 mph. Colder air filters in behind a front on Friday night, giving all of us a chance for a freeze on Saturday and Sunday mornings, especially the cold spots that could go into the 20’s for lows.

Screenshot 2023 09 20 123315
The latest 3-day rainfall forecast from the NWS is predicting 0.02 rainfall for us.
GFS 2
The latest 5-Day GFS model is predicting 0.10 rainfall for us.
NBM 2
The latest 5-Day NBM model is predicting 0.07 rainfall for us...insert the James Bond theme song for greater impact!
Euro 1

The latest 5-Day Euro model is predicting 0.17 rainfall for us.

5-Day Forecast…

The rest of the day: Mostly cloudy with a chance for evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the low 70’s. Winds SW 10-15, with gusts to 20mph. Rain totals: Zero to 0.10 of an inch. A chance for rain/snow mix at Wolf Creek Pass this evening and through the night.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy in the morning with a slight chance showers and thunderstorms before 9am. Clearing in the late morning with highs in upper 60’s to low 70’s. Winds SW 15-20mph, with gusts to 30mph. Rain totals: Zero to 0.05 of an inch. 

Friday: Partly cloudy and breezy in the afternoon with lows in the 30’s to low 40’s and highs in mid to upper 60’s. Winds SW 15-20, with gusts to 25mph.

Saturday: Partly cloudy with lows in the low to upper 30’s and highs in the mid to upper 60’s. Winds SW 10-15, with gusts to 20mph. Cold spots could see lows in the upper 20’s.

Sunday: Partly cloudy with lows in the low to upper 30’s and highs in low to mid 70’s. Winds SW 10-15, with gusts to 20mph. Cold spots could see lows in the upper 20’s.

Monday: Mostly sunny with lows in the 30’s to low 40’s and highs in the low to mid 70’s. Winds SW 10-15, with gusts to 20mph.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

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