Bonus rain and first decent dusting of Pagosa Peak!

Cover

Yesterday’s storms not only filled some rain gauges but dropped a dusting of snow on our nearby peaks! Photos by Mark Langford

Tuesday 9-19-2023. 10am update.

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 67 degrees and the low this morning was 39 degrees. Winds gusted to 32mph yesterday and our humidity bottomed out at 37% yesterday afternoon.

Precipitation summary: Nice to see some surprisingly high rainfall totals from yesterday’s storms…none of the models thought we would see much rain yesterday.

Screenshot 2023 09 19 090816
Shawn and Arleen won the rain lottery yesterday from COCORAHS reports, although I did see some higher totals on unofficial weather sensors in our area.

Pagosa Springs historical data for September 19th.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7387/ 19563725/ 1988

Here’s the latest on our nearby fires:

Quartz Ridge Fire link

Bear Creek Fire link

Screenshot 2023 09 19 094349
Drier air is filtering into our area from the west today as seen in yellow tones on the latest water vapor imagery. A trough moving into the Pacific NW will be our next weather maker later this week.

Forecast discussion…

It was great to see more rain than the models had predicted yesterday as a short wave moved through and activated storms over our area. With the mid-levels drying out a bit today, look for only very scattered activity as compared with yesterday. By Thursday, an approaching cold front and a low pressure moving into the Pacific NW, will set us up for a brief SW flow, giving us a slight chance for rain and even some snow showers at Wolf Creek. Unfortunately, most of the moisture will stay to our north. On Friday, look for winds gusting to 30mph as the front moves through, putting us in a dry, NW flow for the weekend. We could see lows in the 20’s for the cold spots on Saturday and Sunday mornings.

NWS
The latest 3-day rainfall forecast from the NWS is predicting very little rainfall for us.
GFS 1
The latest 5-Day GFS model is predicting only 0.01 rainfall for us.
NBM 1
The latest 5-Day NBM model is predicting 0.06 rainfall for us.
Euro

The latest 4-Day Euro model is predicting 0.16 rainfall for us.

5-Day Forecast…

The rest of the day: Partly cloudy with a tiny chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the low to mid 70’s. Winds SW 10-15, with gusts to 20mph. Rain totals: Zero to 0.05 of an inch.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy with lows in the 30’s to low 40’s and highs in the low to mid 70’s. Winds SW 10-15, with gusts to 20mph.

Thursday: Partly cloudy with a slight chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the 30’s to low 40’s and highs in upper 60’s to low 70’s. Winds SW 10-15, with gusts to 30mph. Rain totals: Zero to 0.05 of an inch. A chance for snow showers at Wolf Creek.

Friday: Partly cloudy and turning cooler with lows in the 30’s to low 40’s and highs in mid to upper 60’s. Winds SW 15-20, with gusts to 30mph.

Saturday: Partly cloudy with lows in the low to upper 30’s and highs in the mid to upper 60’s. Winds SW 10-15, with gusts to 20mph. Cold spots could see lows in the upper 20’s.

Sunday: Partly cloudy with lows in the low to upper 30’s and highs in low to mid 70’s. Winds SW 10-15, with gusts to 20mph. Cold spots could see lows in the upper 20’s.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

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