Two more days of scattered showers and thunderstorms…

Snow on the Rio Grande Pyramid! – Pic taken 9/14/2023

Snow on the Rio Grande Pyramid! – Pic taken 9/14/2023

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Thursday – 14 Sep 2023 – 8:05am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday was 65 and the low this morning was 40. Humidity bottomed out yesterday afternoon at 44%.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday was 18mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7492 / 19903724 / 1950

Precipitation summary… Rain was more scattered yesterday. Our eastern mountains, including the Quartz Ridge Fire area, got a good soaking.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports from zero to 0.86”. The rain lottery winner was Hillary’s rain forest near Chromo.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports from zero to 0.86”. The rain lottery winner was Hillary’s rain forest near Chromo.

Fire updates…

Quartz Ridge Fire link

Bear Creek Fire link

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this morning – The trough is moving slowly towards the southeast and will move through our area tomorrow evening. There is plenty of moisture to fuel scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Water vapor satellite this morning – The trough is moving slowly towards the southeast and will move through our area tomorrow evening. There is plenty of moisture to fuel scattered showers and thunderstorms.

There is nothing on radar in our area this morning.

Forecast Highlights…

Cooler temps, scattered afternoon showers, and thunderstorms through Friday.

*** Isolated, brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning are possible this afternoon and evening and then again tomorrow. ***

*** Keep an eye out for snow above 12,500ft through Thursday and then above 12,000ft on Friday. ***

*** Protect your plants Friday night/Saturday morning. The cold spots in the valley will drop below freezing. ***

Rest of today through Friday… Today is starting with lots of blue sky.  Clouds will start developing over the mountains after 10am and the first few showers and thunderstorms will develop over the mountains between 11 and noon. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms in the valley is 3pm to 9pm.  They’ll be spotty.

The next trough will move northwest to southeast across the region on Friday. This will give us more clouds and a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms late Thursday night to Friday evening.  The best chance is Friday afternoon into the early evening.

Patchy fog is possible in the low-lying areas Friday and Saturday mornings.

Snow levels…

Snow levels will bounce around between 12,500ft and 13,000ft through Thursday. On Friday snow levels could drop to 12,000ft so snow is possible towards the tops of many of our peaks. I do not expect snow on Wolf Creek Pass.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will mostly be in the 15-20mph range, but stronger gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Today will be in the mid-60s to  low 70s and lows will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s. Friday highs will be in the high 50s to mid-60s and lows will be in the low 30s to low 40s. The cold spots will drop below freezing Saturday morning.

NBM precip to Saturday at 6am shows 0.32” for the Pagosa area, 0.51” for Chama, and up to 1.30” in our mountains.
NBM precip to Saturday at 6am shows 0.32” for the Pagosa area, 0.51” for Chama, and up to 1.30” in our mountains.
NBM forecast radar from 10am this morning to midnight tonight – The first spotty showers and thunderstorms develop over the mountains by noon.  Showers and thunderstorms increase over much of the county 3-9pm and then dissipate the rest of the evening.
NBM forecast radar from 10am this morning to midnight tonight – The first spotty showers and thunderstorms develop over the mountains by noon.  Showers and thunderstorms increase over much of the county 3-9pm and then dissipate the rest of the evening.

Saturday, Sunday, and Monday… High pressure will build back over the region.  We’ll see a lot of sun and have pleasant seasonal temps. There is a slight chance for a spotty shower or thunderstorm Saturday and Monday afternoons, mostly over the mountains. Otherwise, it will be dry.

Winds… Winds each morning will be light and variable.  Beginning around 11am each day winds will increase into the 10-20mph range out of the southwest.

Temps… Highs on Saturday will be in the high 60s to mid-70s and lows will be in the mid-30s to low 40s.  On Sunday and Monday highs will be in the low to mid-70s and lows will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s.  The cold spots will flirt with lows near freezing each morning.

My next post will be tomorrow.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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