Just getting started – more rain on the way…

Smoke from the Bear Creek Fire after a rain shower moved through – pic taken 9/10/2023

Smoke from the Bear Creek Fire after a rain shower moved through – pic taken 9/10/2023

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Monday – 11 Sep 2023 – 12:45pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday was 81 and the low this morning was 52. Humidity bottomed out yesterday afternoon at 16%.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday was 28mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7586 / 19563924 / 1950

Precipitation summary… We finally got some rain – yay!

CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports from 0.05” to 0.27”. Hillary’s rain forest was the big winner near Chromo.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports from 0.05” to 0.27”. Hillary’s rain forest was the big winner near Chromo.

Fire updates…

Quartz Ridge Fire link

Bear Creek Fire link

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this morning – A trough moved through this morning and brought most of the county some rain. There’s still enough moisture to fuel another round of afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms today.  The next batch of deep moisture will move into the region tonight.
Water vapor satellite this morning – A trough moved through this morning and brought most of the county some rain. There’s still enough moisture to fuel another round of afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms today.  The next batch of deep moisture will move into the region tonight.
Radar this morning – Things are pretty quiet on our side of The Divide.  There is a band of weak showers in the Chromo and Chama area. Radar will get more active over the next couple of hours as we warm up.
Radar this morning – Things are pretty quiet on our side of The Divide.  There is a band of weak showers in the Chromo and Chama area. Radar will get more active over the next couple of hours as we warm up.

Forecast Highlights…

More clouds, cooler temps, scattered showers and thunderstorms through Friday.

*** Brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning are possible this afternoon and then again Tuesday morning to Wednesday evening. ***

*** Keep an eye out for snow above 12,500ft Thursday morning! ***

*** The cold spots in the valley will flirt with freezing temps Friday and Saturday mornings. ***

Rest of today through Friday… A trough moving west to east will push moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Jova into the Four Corners area. By Tuesday precipitable water is nearly 200% of average in our area.

Monday we’ll see scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.  Moisture will peak late Monday night into Tuesday evening so showers and thunderstorms will be more widespread.  Wednesday will still be active, but showers and thunderstorms will be more scattered. Thursday and Friday showers and thunderstorms will be more hit and miss as moisture decreases across area.

Snow levels…

Snow levels will be 13,000-13,500ft until Wednesday evening.  If clouds clear enough, keep an eye on our 13’ers – Rio Grande Pyramid to the northwest and Montezuma and Summit Peaks to the east-northeast – for snow!

Wednesday night snow levels will drop to around 12,500ft so snow is possible towards the tops of many of our peaks. I do not expect snow on Wolf Creek Pass or the ski area.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will mostly be in the 15-20mph range, but stronger gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Monday highs will be in the low to high 70s and lows will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s. Tuesday and Wednesday highs will range from the low to high 60s and lows will range from the mid-40s to mid-50s. Thursday highs will be in the high 60s to mid-70s and lows will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s.  The cold spots will flirt with freezing temps Friday and Saturday mornings.

NAM forecast radar from noon today to Wednesday at 2am – Spotty showers and thunderstorms develop this afternoon and move towards the east-southeast. Things clear out the first part of the evening and then scattered showers and thunderstorms persist most of the night. There’s another lull tomorrow afternoon and then another good round develops tomorrow evening.
NAM forecast radar from noon today to Wednesday at 2am – Spotty showers and thunderstorms develop this afternoon and move towards the east-southeast. Things clear out the first part of the evening and then scattered showers and thunderstorms persist most of the night. There’s another lull tomorrow afternoon and then another good round develops tomorrow evening.
NBM total precip – Each chart shows the total precip to that point.  Example: The late Thursday evening chart includes all of the precip from the other 3 charts.  Starting with today in the upper left, the NBM expects 0.13” in the Pagosa area. Tuesday evening it’s up to 0.50”. Wednesday evening it’s at 0.83”, and then by Thursday evening it’s at 0.97”.
NBM total precip – Each chart shows the total precip to that point.  Example: The late Thursday evening chart includes all of the precip from the other 3 charts.  Starting with today in the upper left, the NBM expects 0.13” in the Pagosa area. Tuesday evening it’s up to 0.50”. Wednesday evening it’s at 0.83”, and then by Thursday evening it’s at 0.97”.

Saturday and Sunday… High pressure will build back over the region.  We’ll see a lot of sun, remain dry, and have pleasant seasonal temps.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be in the 15-20mph range.

Temps… Highs will be in the low to high 70s and lows will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s.  The cold spots will flirt with lows near freezing.

My next post will be tomorrow.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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