Looks good for a soaking next week! – High country snow?…

Bear Creek Fire at sunset – pic taken 9/7/2023

Bear Creek Fire at sunset – pic taken 9/7/2023

If images fail to load in the email, please click the title of the post. Thanks!

Saturday – 9 Sep 2023 – 3:45pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday was 83 and the low this morning was 43. Humidity bottomed out yesterday afternoon at 8% and this afternoon it’s 12%.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday was 28mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7688 / 19593919 / 1941

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.

Fire updates…

Quartz Ridge Fire link

Bear Creek Fire link

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this afternoon – The high continues to wobble around southeast AZ/southwest NM. Moisture is slowly increasing across the Four Corners region.  Moisture from Hurricane Jova will move into our area Monday and will peak Tuesday into Wednesday afternoon.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon – The high continues to wobble around southeast AZ/southwest NM. Moisture is slowly increasing across the Four Corners region.  Moisture from Hurricane Jova will move into our area Monday and will peak Tuesday into Wednesday afternoon.

There is nothing on radar this afternoon in our area.

Forecast Highlights…

*** There is an Air Quality Alert out for moderate to heavy smoke. Smoke will be at its worst overnight and into mid-morning. ***

More clouds, cooler temps, scattered showers and thunderstorms next week.

*** Brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning are possible Tuesday afternoon to Wednesday evening. ***

*** Keep an eye out for snow above 12,500ft! ***

*** The cold spots in the valley will flirt with freezing temps around sunrise Friday morning. ***

Rest of today through Sunday… Moisture is slowly increasing across the region. Sunday is a transition day as more clouds move in and moisture continues to gradually increase.  Spotty showers and a thunderstorm or two are possible Sunday afternoon, mostly over the mountains.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will mostly be in the 15-25mph range.

Temps… Highs will range from the high 70s to mid-80s and lows will range from the high 30s to  high 40s.

Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday… Things are lining up nicely. A trough moving west to east will push moisture from Hurricane Jova into the Four Corners area. By Tuesday precipitable water is nearly 200% of average in our area – impressive!

Monday we’ll see scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.  Tuesday and Wednesday showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will be more widespread.  Thursday showers and thunderstorms will become more scattered as moisture decreases across area.

Snow levels…

Snow levels will be around 13,000ft until Wednesday evening.  If clouds clear enough, keep an eye on our 13’ers – Rio Grande Pyramid to the northwest and Montezuma and Summit Peaks to the east-northeast – for snow!

Wednesday night snow levels will drop to around 12,500ft so snow is possible towards the tops of many of our peaks. I do not expect snow on Wolf Creek Pass or the ski area.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will mostly be in the 15-20mph range, but stronger gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Monday highs will be in the low to high 70s and lows will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s. Tuesday and Wednesday highs will range from the mid-60s to low 70s and lows will range from the mid-40s to mid-50s. Thursday highs will be in the high 60s to mid-70s and lows will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s.  The cold spots will flirt with freezing temps first thing Friday morning.

NBM precip to late Thursday evening shows 1.38” near Pagosa. The Euro ensemble also expects 1.71” and the GFS ensemble expects 1.19”. It’s almost time to wash your car and do your rain dances!
NBM precip to late Thursday evening shows 1.38” near Pagosa. The Euro ensemble also expects 1.71” and the GFS ensemble expects 1.19”. It’s almost time to wash your car and do your rain dance!

My next post will be on Monday and then I’ll do a post each day through Wednesday or Thursday. – Shawn

Pagosa Weather Blizzard Level Sponsor

Pagosa Weather Storm Sponsor

Shawn Pro

Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
Get Pagosa Weather Updates

Enter your email address to receive notifications of new posts by email.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Pagosa Weather Disclaimer and Release of Liability

This website makes no guarantees about nor bears any responsibility or liability concerning the accuracy or timeliness of the weather information published on this website. All weather information published on this website is for educational and weather enthusiast purposes only. We do not issue Storm Watches, Warnings or Advisories as that ability falls with the National Weather Service, who is the only institution allowed to issue such warnings by law. We are not in any way linked nor affiliated with the National Weather Service, although we do share information and relay weather watches/ warnings, etc. Use of the information on page is at your own risk/discretion, and we are not responsible for any personal/property damages, injury or death associated with weather forecasts, reports or other information as well as communication exchanged in private messages and/or person.

Terms of Use                  Privacy Policy

 

© 2024 Pagosa Weathe

Website Design by : Brandon