Dry this week – More active next week…

A very pleasant sunset – pic taken 9/4/2023

A very pleasant sunset – pic taken 9/4/2023

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Tuesday – 5 Sep 2023 – 2:45pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday was 74 and the low this morning was 46. Low temps across the area this morning ranged from 35 to 50 – a 15 degree difference! Humidity bottomed out yesterday afternoon at 22%.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday was 31mph and so far today it has been 21mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7894 / 19503926 / 1971

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.

Fire updates…

Quartz Ridge Fire link

Bear Creek Fire link

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this afternoon – An upper-level ridge is to our west.  Dry air is prevalent across the desert southwest.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon – An upper-level ridge is to our west.  Dry air is prevalent across the desert southwest.

There is nothing on radar this afternoon in our area.

Forecast Highlights…

Sunny and dry with breezy afternoons this week

More active next week

Rest of today through Sunday… Dry upper-level flow will persist during this period. Sunday is a transition day as moisture will begin moving into the region which could kick up a stray shower or thunderstorm over the mountains. We’ll see lots of sun and temps near to slightly above average.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will mostly be in the 15-25mph range.

Temps… Highs will range from the high 70s to mid-80s and lows will range from the high 30s to the high 40s.

NBM to Sunday evening shows a little in our mountains and nothing in the valley.
NBM precip to Sunday evening shows a little in our mountains and nothing in the valley.

Monday and Tuesday… A weak trough will move through the region from the west. Moisture and instability will increase leading to spotty showers and thunderstorms.  My expectations are low. Let’s hope we get lucky!

Winds… Afternoon gusts will mostly be in the 15-25mph range, but stronger gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Highs will range from near 70 to the upper 70s and lows will range from the low 40s to low 50s.

NBM to late evening next Tuesday shows 0.16” near Pagosa, 0.23” for Chama, and up to 0.40” in our mountains. The forecast models are trending slowly upward – a positive trend!
NBM precip to late evening next Tuesday shows 0.16” near Pagosa, 0.23” for Chama, and up to 0.40” in our mountains. The forecast models are trending slowly upward – a positive trend!

My next post will be on Thursday.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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