Lots of sun and d-r-y…

Love these colorful sunrises! – pic taken 9/2/2023

Love these colorful sunrises! – pic taken 9/2/2023

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Sunday – 3 Sep 2023 – 2:40pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday was 79 and the low this morning was 54. Humidity bottomed out yesterday afternoon at 24%.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday was 22mph and so far today it has been 24mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7990 / 19553925 / 1973

Precipitation summary… A weak batch of showers moved through around 4am.  The lucky spots got just enough rain to wet the ground.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports range from zero to 0.02”. The rain lottery winner was Robert near Hatcher Lake.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports range from zero to 0.02”. The rain lottery winner was Robert near Hatcher Lake.

Fire updates…

Quartz Ridge Fire link

Bear Creek Fire link

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this afternoon – The trough that brought us weak showers last night has pushed to our east.  Drier and more stable air is slowly moving in from the southwest. The low over western NV will miss us to the north but will help increase our winds tomorrow afternoon.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon – The trough that brought us weak showers last night has pushed to our east.  Drier and more stable air is slowly moving in from the southwest. The low over western NV will miss us to the north but will help increase our winds tomorrow afternoon.

There is nothing on radar this afternoon in our area.

Forecast Highlights…

Sunny and dry with breezy afternoons

Rest of today through next Sunday… Dry upper-level southwest flow will persist for the next 7 days. We’ll see lots of sun and temps near to slightly above average.

Tomorrow a weak trough will skirt through northwest Colorado and Wyoming and kick up our winds a bit.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will mostly be in the 15-25mph range. Winds Monday afternoon will be strongest with gusts in the 20-30mph range.

Temps… Monday and Tuesday highs will range from the mid-70s to low 80s and lows will be in the low 40s to low 50s. The cold spots will be in the upper 30s around sunrise on Tuesday. The rest of the period highs will range from the high 70s to mid-80s and lows will range from the low 40s to the low 50s.

NBM 11-day precip to 14 Sep at 6am shows none near Pagosa, 0.01” for Chama, and up to 0.10” in our mountains. A couple of forecast models hint at a slightly more active pattern 7-10 days out, but I’m skeptical.  It looks like spotty showers at best.
NBM 11-day precip to 14 Sep at 6am shows none near Pagosa, 0.01” for Chama, and up to 0.10” in our mountains. A couple of forecast models hint at a slightly more active pattern 7-10 days out, but I’m skeptical.  It looks like spotty showers at best.

My next post will be on Tuesday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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