Harold was a bust – ugh!…

Pagosa Peak at sunrise – pic taken 8/24/2023

Pagosa Peak at sunrise – pic taken 8/24/2023

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Friday – 25 Aug 2023 – 9:25am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday was 76 and the low this morning was 56. Humidity bottomed out yesterday afternoon at 31%.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday was 26mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7987 / 19854333 / 1975

Precipitation summary… My forecast stunk. What happened?

There wasn’t much left of Harold when it moved through the Four Corners area yesterday.  There was plenty of moisture – humidity was over 50% and dew points were in the mid-50s most of yesterday afternoon. Storm energy was the problem.  It stayed confined around the low.  Cortez, much closer to the low, got 1-2” of rain.  There are also a couple of reports around 1” in the Durango area.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour rain totals range from zero to 0.02” – barely enough to wet the ground for the lucky spots.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour rain totals range from zero to 0.02” – barely enough to wet the ground for the lucky spots.

Fire updates…

Quartz Ridge Fire link

Bear Creek Fire link

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this morning – There isn’t much left of Harold.  He’s spinning over northwest Colorado.  But there is plenty of moisture to fuel afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially along the Front Range.
Water vapor satellite this morning – There isn’t much left of Harold.  He’s spinning over northwest Colorado.  But there is plenty of moisture to fuel afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially along the Front Range.

There is nothing on radar this morning in our area. However, there is light rain falling in a few spots this morning.

Forecast Highlights…

*** Fire danger is “moderate”. ***

*** Stage 1 Fire Restrictions are in effect for the lower elevations of San Juan National Forest and all of Archuleta County. The minimum fine for violating campfire restrictions is $530. ***

Rest of today through Thursday… Moisture will decrease but we’ll still have a chance for spotty afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will mostly be in the 10-20mph range, but isolated stronger gusts are likely near showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Today highs will range from the mid-70s to low 80s and lows will be in the high 40s to mid-50s. The rest of the period highs will range from the high 70s to mid-80s and lows will range from the mid-40s to the low 50s.

25 Aug 2023 am NWS 72 hour precip
NWS 72-hour precip to Monday morning expects 0.13” for Pagosa, 0.40” for Chama, and up to 0.75” in our mountains.  As usual for this time of year, this all convective precip so amounts will vary considerably.
NBM precip to late Thursday evening shows 0.38” in the Pagosa area, 0.89” for Chama, and up to 1” in our mountains. The eastern half of Colorado and northeast New Mexico are expected to do well under this weather pattern.
NBM precip to late Thursday evening shows 0.38” in the Pagosa area, 0.89” for Chama, and up to 1” in our mountains. The eastern half of Colorado and northeast New Mexico are expected to do well under this weather pattern.

And the long range?…

The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day and 8-14 day precip outlooks both lean towards above average precip.
The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day and 8-14 day precip outlooks both lean towards above average precip.

Unless something interesting pops up, Mark will do the next post on Sunday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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