Harold’s remnants are headed our way…

Geese at sunrise – pic taken 8/22/2023

Geese at sunrise – pic taken 8/22/2023

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Wednesday – 23 Aug 2023 – 1:30pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature so far today is 75 and the low this morning was 60. The lowest humidity so far today is 35%.

The peak wind at Stevens Field so far today is 6mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7989 / 19454331 / 1950

Precipitation summary… Small, fast-moving showers and a couple of thunderstorms dropped some rain over much of the county yesterday.  Amounts were mostly light, less than 0.10”.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour rain totals range from zero to 0.18”. Arleen was the rain lottery in the southern end of O’Neal Park!
CoCoRaHS 24-hour rain totals range from zero to 0.18”. Arleen was the rain lottery in the southern end of O’Neal Park!

Fire updates…

Quartz Ridge Fire link

Bear Creek Fire link

American Mesa Fire link

Forecast discussion…

GeoColor satellite this afternoon – The leading edge of clouds associated with Harold are moving into the Four Corners region.  There isn’t much precip with those clouds yet.  The main part of the storm is over southwest NM and is expected to track along the red arrows.
GeoColor satellite this afternoon – The leading edge of clouds associated with Harold are moving into the Four Corners region.  There isn’t much precip with those clouds yet.  The main part of the storm is over southwest NM and is expected to track along the red arrows.
Radar this afternoon – A few weak showers have developed over parts of Archuleta County and are moving towards the north. Harold’s remnants are over southwest NM and moving towards the northwest.
Radar this afternoon – A few weak showers have developed over parts of Archuleta County and are moving towards the north. Harold’s remnants are over southwest NM and moving towards the northwest.

Forecast Highlights…

*** Fire danger is “moderate”. ***

*** Stage 1 Fire Restrictions are in effect for the lower elevations of San Juan National Forest and all of Archuleta County. The minimum fine for violating campfire restrictions is $530. ***

Tropical Storm Harold…

Euro 500mb heights and moisture loop from Wednesday at noon to late Friday evening – Moisture will increase through this afternoon and evening. There isn’t much upper-level support with this first surge so it will just result in spotty light rain showers and a couple of spotty thunderstorms. Starting tomorrow afternoon another surge of moisture moves into our area and this one has better upper-level storm energy. Through Friday morning, storm energy and moisture both decrease so showers and thunderstorms will become spottier.
Euro 500mb heights and moisture loop from Wednesday at noon to late Friday evening – Moisture will increase through this afternoon and evening. There isn’t much upper-level support with this first surge so it will just result in spotty rain showers and a couple of spotty thunderstorms. Starting tomorrow afternoon another surge of moisture moves into our area and this one has better upper-level storm energy. Through Friday morning, storm energy and moisture both decrease so showers and thunderstorms will become spottier.
Thanks for sponsoring Harold!
Thanks for sponsoring Harold!

Rest of today… Moisture will slowly increase from the south and the atmosphere will become a little less stable. We’ll see scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, especially over the mountains.

Winds… Afternoons gusts will be mostly in the 10-20mph range. Stronger gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Highs will range from the mid-70s to low 80s and lows will be in the high 40s to mid-50s.

NBM precip to Wednesday evening at 11pm expects 0.05” in the Pagosa area, 0.03” for Chama, and up to 0.25” in our mountains.
NBM precip to Wednesday evening at 11pm expects 0.05” in the Pagosa area, 0.03” for Chama, and up to 0.25” in our mountains.

Thursday and Friday… The remnants of Tropical Storm Harold will move through Thursday night and Friday morning. We’ll get a good soaking rain with occasional embedded heavier showers and thunderstorms.

The chance for precip will ramp up late Thursday afternoon. The best chance for precip is Thursday evening and Thursday night.

*** Brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning are likely. ***

Most of the county will get 0.40” to 0.60” of rain. The western part of the county will be favored with up to an inch possible.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will mostly be in the 10-20mph range, but isolated stronger gusts are likely near showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-70s to low 80s and lows will be in the high 40s to mid-50s.

NBM precip to Saturday at 6am indicates 0.51” in the Pagosa area, 0.39” for Chama, and up to 1” in our mountains.  Forecast precip for 7 different models ranges from 0.33” to 0.86” – a slight downward trend.
NBM precip to Saturday at 6am indicates 0.51” in the Pagosa area, 0.39” for Chama, and up to 1” in our mountains.  Forecast precip for 7 different models ranges from 0.33” to 0.86” – a slight downward trend.

Saturday through Tuesday… Moisture will decrease but we’ll still have a chance for spotty afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will mostly be in the 10-20mph range, but isolated stronger gusts are likely near showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Highs will range from the high 70s to mid-80s and lows will range from the mid-40s to the low 50s.

My next post will be tomorrow.

– Shawn

Pagosa Weather Blizzard Level Sponsor

Pagosa Weather Storm Sponsor

Shawn Pro

Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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