Remnants of Tropical Storm Harold will move through Thursday night…

A sunset rain shower on Graham Peak – pic taken 8/21/2023

A sunset rain shower on Graham Peak – pic taken 8/21/2023

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Tuesday – 22 Aug 2023 – 7:00pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature this afternoon was 81 and the low this morning was 60. Humidity bottomed out at 20% this afternoon.

The peak wind at Stevens Field today was 25mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8091 / 19104429 / 1956

Precipitation summary… A few raindrops fell over parts of western Archuleta County, but there was no measurable precip reported.

Fire updates…

Quartz Ridge Fire link

Bear Creek Fire link

American Mesa Fire link

Forecast discussion…

Infrared satellite this evening – Isolated showers are moving through western Archuleta County. The remnants of Harold are expected to be over the Four Corners by late Thursday evening.
Infrared satellite this evening – Isolated showers are moving through western Archuleta County. Harold’s remnants will be over the Four Corners by late Thursday evening.
Radar this evening – There are a few small showers and thunderstorms moving towards the north through parts of Archuleta County this evening. In the bottom right is Harold.  
Radar this evening – There are a few small showers and thunderstorms moving towards the north through parts of Archuleta County this evening. In the bottom right is Harold.  

Forecast Highlights…

*** Fire danger is “moderate”. ***

*** Stage 1 Fire Restrictions are in effect for the lower elevations of San Juan National Forest and all of Archuleta County. The minimum fine for violating campfire restrictions is $530. ***

Tropical Storm Harold…

Euro 500mb heights and moisture loop from Wednesday at noon to Saturday at 6am – Initially Harold is over southwest NM. By Thursday morning Harold is over eastern AZ. Late Thursday evening Harold is over the Four Corners and funneling moisture into Archuleta County. Friday evening the best moisture has moved to our north.
Euro 500mb heights and moisture loop from Wednesday at noon to Saturday at 6am – Initially Harold is over southwest NM. By Thursday morning Harold is over eastern AZ. Late Thursday evening Harold is over the Four Corners and funneling moisture into Archuleta County. By Friday evening the best moisture has moved to our north.
Thanks for sponsoring Harold!
Thanks for sponsoring Harold!

Wednesday… Moisture will slowly increase from the south and the atmosphere will become a little less stable. We’ll see spotty afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, especially over the mountains.

Winds… Afternoons gusts will be mostly in the 10-20mph range. Stronger gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Highs will range from the high 70s to mid-80s and lows will be in the high 40s to mid-50s.

Thursday and Friday… The remnants of Tropical Storm Harold will move through Thursday night and Friday. We’ll get a good soaking rain with occasional embedded heavier showers and thunderstorms.

*** Periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning are likely. ***

Most of the county will get 0.50” to 0.75” of rain. The western part of the county will be favored with up to an inch possible.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will mostly be in the 10-20mph range, but isolated stronger gusts are likely near showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-70s to  low 80s and lows will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s.

NBM precip to Saturday at 6am indicates 0.51” in the Pagosa area, 0.48” for Chama, and up to 1” in our mountains.  Forecast precip for 7 different models ranges from 0.41” to 0.93”.
NBM precip to Saturday at 6am indicates 0.51” in the Pagosa area, 0.48” for Chama, and up to 1” in our mountains. 
Forecast precip for 7 different models ranges from 0.41” to 0.93”.

Saturday and Sunday… Moisture will decrease but we’ll still have a chance for spotty afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will mostly be in the 10-20mph range, but isolated stronger gusts are likely near showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Highs will range from the high 70s to mid-80s and lows will range from the mid-40s to the low 50s.

My next post will be tomorrow.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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