Getting more active through the week…

Last evening light on Pagosa Peak – pic taken 8/18/2023

Last evening light on Pagosa Peak – pic taken 8/18/2023

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Sunday – 20 Aug 2023 – 5:55pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 87 and this afternoon it was 85. The low this morning was 51. Humidity bottomed out at 13% yesterday afternoon and this afternoon it was 12%.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday was 22mph and today it was 23mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7990 / 19454530 / 1985

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.

Fire updates…

Quartz Ridge Fire link

Bear Creek Fire link

American Mesa Fire link

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this afternoon – A strong high pressure continues to meander over the central plains. We have dry upper-level south-southeast flow over us.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon – A strong high pressure continues to meander over the central plains. We have dry upper-level south-southeast flow over us.

There is nothing significant on radar this afternoon in our area.

Forecast Highlights…

*** Fire danger is “moderate” but things are drying out with warmer temps, low humidity, and gusty afternoon winds. ***

*** Stage 1 Fire Restrictions are in effect for the lower elevations of San Juan National Forest and all of Archuleta County. The minimum fine for violating campfire restrictions is $530. ***

Hurricane Hilary…

Hilary made landfall on the Baja Coast this afternoon.  It will weaken as it moves north but will drop a lot of rain along its path. It will not impact southwest Colorado.
Hilary made landfall on the Baja Coast this afternoon.  It will weaken as it moves north but will drop a lot of rain along its path. It will not impact southwest Colorado.

Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday… Moisture will slowly increase from the south and the atmosphere will become a little less stable. We’ll see spotty afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, especially over the mountains.

Winds… Monday afternoon gusts will be mostly in the 15-25mph range. Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons gusts will be mostly in the 10-20mph range. Stronger gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Monday Highs will be range from around 80 to the mid-80s and lows will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s. Tuesday and Wednesday highs will range from the mid-70s to low 80s and lows will be in the high 40s to mid-50s.

Euro total precip to late Wednesday evening indicates 0.07” in the Pagosa area, 0.05” for Chama, and up to 0.40” in our mountains.
Euro total precip to late Wednesday evening indicates 0.07” in the Pagosa area, 0.05” for Chama, and up to 0.40” in our mountains.

Thursday and Friday… A small, weak upper-level trough rotating around the high will move through our area from the south.  Moisture and instability will peak and give us our best chance for showers and thunderstorms.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will mostly be in the 10-20mph range, but isolated stronger gusts are likely near showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-70s to  low 80s and lows will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s.

Euro 48-hour precip for Thursday and Friday indicates 0.33” in the Pagosa area, 0.25” for Chama, and up to 0.70” in our mountains.
Euro 48-hour precip for Thursday and Friday indicates 0.33” in the Pagosa area, 0.25” for Chama, and up to 0.70” in our mountains.

Next weekend… Moisture will decrease but we’ll still have a chance for isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

My next post will be on Tuesday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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