Will Hurricane Hilary impact us?…

Morning fog in the valley after a good soaking rain – pic taken 8/18/2023

Morning fog in the valley after a good soaking rain – pic taken 8/18/2023

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Friday – 18 Aug 2023 – 11:00am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 87 and the low this morning was 53. Humidity bottomed out at 18% yesterday afternoon.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday was 21mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8097 / 19464530 / 1960

Precipitation summary… Much of the county got some rain yesterday.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip totals reported yesterday morning ranged from zero to 0.68”.  The rain lottery winner was Robert near Hatcher Lake.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip totals reported yesterday morning ranged from zero to 0.68”.  The rain lottery winner was Robert near Hatcher Lake.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip totals reported this morning ranged from trace to 0.29”. Hillary was the rain lottery near Chromo.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip totals reported this morning ranged from trace to 0.29”. Hillary was the rain lottery near Chromo.

Fire updates…

Quartz Ridge Fire link

Bear Creek Fire link

American Mesa Fire link

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this morning – We are on the edge of monsoon moisture plume. It will get pushed to our west because of southeast flow around the high (blue arrows).
Water vapor satellite this morning – We are on the edge of the monsoon moisture plume. It will get pushed to our west because of southeast flow around the high (blue arrows).

There is nothing significant on radar this morning in our area.

Forecast Highlights…

*** There will be less shower activity today, but brief periods of localized heavy rain, small hail, erratic gusty winds, and lightning are possible. ***

*** Fire danger has improved to “moderate”. ***

*** Stage 1 Fire Restrictions are in effect for the lower elevations of San Juan National Forest and all of Archuleta County. The minimum fine for violating campfire restrictions is $530. ***

Hurricane Hilary…

She won’t impact us. Details and explanations are included with the graphics below.

Euro 500mb vorticity valid Saturday evening – The high over the central plains is currently the primary influence for much of the weather over much of the US. Hilary is going to move north along the periphery of the high. If the high was a little weaker or shifted a couple of hundred miles to the east, Hilary would move through the Four Corners region.  For us, southeast flow around the high is going to push the monsoon moisture plume to our west.
Euro 500mb vorticity valid Saturday evening – The high over the central plains is currently the primary influence for the weather over much of the US. Hilary is going to move north along the periphery of the high. If the high was a little weaker or shifted a couple of hundred miles to the east, Hilary would move through the Four Corners region.  For us, southeast flow around the high is going to push the monsoon moisture plume to our west.
The official hurricane forecast shows Hilary moving into southern California as a tropical storm Sunday night. It’s expected to continue moving north and weakening.
The official hurricane forecast shows Hilary moving into southern California as a tropical storm Sunday night. It’s expected to continue moving north and weakening.
NBM forecast precip to late Tuesday evening – Southern California, southern Nevada, western Arizona, and southwest Utah are expected to get significant rain from Hilary. Very little precip is expected over Archuleta County.
NBM forecast precip to late Tuesday evening – Southern California, southern Nevada, western Arizona, and southwest Utah are expected to get significant rain from Hilary. Very little precip is expected over Archuleta County.

Today… Monsoon moisture is being pushed to our west, but we’ll see a few spotty afternoon showers and thunderstorms.  They won’t be as widespread as yesterday.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will mostly be in the 10-20mph range, but isolated stronger gusts are likely near showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Highs will be in the low to  high 80s and lows will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s.

NAM forecast radar Friday 10am to 8pm – Shower activity is expected to be much spottier today over Archuleta County.  Showers will move from south-southwest towards the north-northeast.
NAM forecast radar Friday 10am to 8pm – Shower activity is expected to be much spottier today over Archuleta County.  Showers will move from south-southwest towards the north-northeast.
NWS 72-hour forecast precip expects most of Archuleta County to stay dry.
NWS 72-hour forecast precip expects most of Archuleta County to stay dry.

Saturday through Tuesday… Moisture will decrease and the atmosphere will get more stable. I expect Sunday to be dry, but Saturday, Monday, and Tuesday there is a slight chance for isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms, mostly over the mountains.

Winds… Saturday and Tuesday afternoon gusts will mostly be in the 10-20mph range. Sunday and Monday afternoon gusts will be in the 15-25mph range. Stronger gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Highs will range from around 80 to the high 80s and lows will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s.

Wednesday through Friday… A weak surge of monsoon moisture will gradually move back into our area.  The chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms will increase a little each day.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will mostly be in the 10-20mph range, but isolated stronger gusts are likely near showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Highs will be in the high 70s to mid-80s and lows will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s.

My next post will be on Sunday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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