Finally, some rain!

Not the prettiest water in my rain gauge, but even with a bug, it’s great to find some liquid in my gauge this morning!

Saturday 8-12-2023. 9:30am update.

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 83 degrees. The low this morning was 55 degrees. Winds gusted to 20mph yesterday and our humidity bottomed out at 18% yesterday afternoon.

Precipitation summary: Nice to see some precipitation to summarize!

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Finally, most of our COCORAHS reporters had something to do this morning! Rainfall totals from this morning’s early rain ranged from 0-0.14 inches.

Pagosa Springs historical data August 12th.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8189/ 19724733/ 1950

Perseids Meteor Shower Forecast:

The Perseids — the “best meteor shower of the year” — are back. Here’s how to watch the peak. – CBS News

A chance for showers and thunderstorms this evening. Hopefully skies will start clearing out by 10pm.

Screenshot 2023 08 12 091924

*** Stage 1 Fire Restrictions are in effect for the lower elevations of San Juan National Forest. The minimum fine for violating campfire restrictions is $530. ***

Here’s the latest on our four nearby fires:

The Quartz Ridge Fire:

Aerial reconnaissance of the fire this evening mapped the fire at 1366 acres, growing 68 acres today. The limited fire growth was isolated to the southeastern flank of the fire, upslope from Quartz Meadow. The fires communications technicians have installed a portable radio repeater to support personnel as they work in the remote areas of these fires. Reliable radio communications are absolutely paramount to ensure firefighter and public safety in addition to operational coordination among fire personnel both in the air and on the ground. Additional fire information at the fires Inciweb page. https://tinyurl.com/mr37bhnr

The Bear Creek Fire and nearby Mosca Fire:

This evenings aerial reconnaissance plots the Bear Creek Fire at 386 acres, for a total growth of 11 acres. Crews completed all structure assessment and preparation north of the Mosca Road within the Weminuche Valley. Portable water tanks have been strategically installed to supply remote structure protection sprinkler systems. The water delivery systems are set up to operate independently in the event that firefighters can’t remain in the immediate area.

Additionally, the Mosca Fire added on an acre, for a total size of 6 acres.

Further information for the Bear Creek and Mosca Fires can be found on the dedicated Inciweb page. https://tinyurl.com/mr37bhnr

The Dry Lake Fire:

Bayfield, CO, August 6, 2023. The Dry Lake Fire is now 11 percent contained and firefighters have completed “blacklining” the control lines around the 1372-acre fire. 135 fire personnel are assigned to the fire, located on San Juan National Forest land northeast of Bayfield.  In conjunction with blacklining, interior pockets of vegetation were burned with an Unmanned Aerial System (UAS), or drone. Firefighters are now patrolling the perimeter and no further growth is expected. 

The American Mesa Fire:

TAOS, N.M., Aug. 10, 2023 – Despite sunny, warm conditions over the fire area, the American Mesa Fire continues to hold at 756 acres and is 35% contained. The wildfire is 15 miles southwest of Dulce.

“We received some isolated torching of juniper trees,” said Operations Planning Chief Jay Bertek on August 9, “But nothing escaped the line. Crews are making good progress securing hose lays and protecting the fire line edge.”

Crews are monitoring the fire and look to take advantage of direct attack strategies where opportunities allow. There are no immediate threats to structures. Two helicopters were used today to secure hotspots along the fire’s edge. An Infrared (IR) Flight is scheduled for August 10th to identify other hotspots within the fire perimeter that need to be worked.

Screenshot 2023 08 12 090346
With a closed low over central California and high pressure over Texas, a surge of moisture is moving in from the south, giving us a chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms for at least the next 5 days.

Forecast discussion…

It was great to wake up to a rain gauge with something more than dust in it this morning! Tropical moisture from the south and a short wave passing through, produced the showers that moved through our area in the early hours of the morning. With plenty of moisture in place, look for a chance for more rain today and through the early evening. The only thing that could put a slight dent in shower and thunderstorm activity, would be if we don’t clear out and temperatures remain cool all day. With a closed low over central California and high pressure over Texas, a surge of moisture will continue to move in from the south, giving us a chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms for at least the next 5 days.

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The latest 3-day rainfall forecast from the NWS is predicting 0.40 inches of rain for Pagosa Springs and 0.7 inches for Chama, NM.
NBM
The latest 5-Day NBM model is predicting 0.76 inches of rain for Pagosa Springs and 0.87 inches for Chama, NM.
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The latest 5-Day Euro model is predicting 0.49 inches of rain for Pagosa Springs and 0.86 inches for Chama, NM.
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The latest 5-Day GFS model is predicting 0.24 inches of rain for Pagosa Springs and 1.41 inches for Chama, NM.

5-Day Forecast…

The rest of the day: Mostly cloudy with a good chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the low to mid 70’s. Winds NW 5-10mph, with gusts to 15mph. Rainfall total: 0-0.10 inches.

Sunday: Partly cloudy with a chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the 40’s and highs in the low to mid 80’s. Winds SW 5-10mph, with gusts to 15mph. Daily rainfall total: 0-0.05 inches.

Monday-Wednesday: Partly cloudy with a good chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the 40’s and highs in the upper 70’s to low 80’s. Winds SW 10-15, with gusts to 20mph. Daily rainfall totals: 0-0.25 inches.

Thursday: Partly cloudy with a chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the 40’s and highs in the low to mid 80’s. Winds SW 10-15mph, with gusts to 20mph. Daily rainfall total: 0-0.10 inches.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

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2 Responses

  1. Hi,

    My toddler is learning about weather and I’d love to get him a rain gauge like the one pictured here – most of the ones I’ve found online start marking at one inch, and I like how this one marks from 0.10. Do you have a link for where I can find a similar gauge?

    Thanks, we thoroughly appreciate your site as we discuss our local weather!

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