Dry, breezy, and warm for a while – Fire danger is “extreme”…

Streams are getting low and warming up.  It’s best to fish early in the mornings. – pic taken 8/3/2023

Streams are getting low and warming up.  It’s best to fish early in the mornings. – pic taken 8/3/2023

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Friday – 4 Aug 2023 – 4:50pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature this afternoon was 84 and the low this morning was 50. Humidity bottomed out at 14% this afternoon.

The peak wind at Stevens Field this afternoon was 27mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8292 / 19584636 / 1950

Precipitation summary… There was no measurable precip this morning.  Yesterday a few showers moved through overnight.  Udgar in the Catchpole area and Mark near the golf course were the rain lottery winners!

Precip amounts yesterday morning ranged from zero to 0.07”.
Precip amounts yesterday morning ranged from zero to 0.07”.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite loop this afternoon – It’s dry over most of the American Southwest. Upper-level flow is out of the west-southwest. The clouds over northern MX are moving towards the south.  That’s backwards for this time of year and not what we want!  Monsoon moisture has been completely cut-off.
Water vapor satellite loop this afternoon – It’s dry over most of the American Southwest. Upper-level flow is out of the west-southwest.
The clouds over northern MX are moving towards the south.  That’s backwards for this time of year and not what we want!  Monsoon moisture has been completely cut-off.

Radar doesn’t indicate anything in our area this afternoon.

Forecast Highlights…

*** Fire danger is “EXTREME”. Warm temps, low humidity, dry fuels, and gusty afternoon winds will result in volatile conditions. ***

Fire danger is extreme

*** Stage 1 Fire Restrictions are in effect for the lower elevations of San Juan National Forest and all of Archuleta County. The minimum fine for violating campfire restrictions is $530. ***

Rest of today through next Friday… The ridge has been flattened by a series of troughs moving into the Pacific NW and then west into the northern Plains. Upper-level flow has turned more out of the west-southwest. This will keep us dry, cause gusty afternoon winds, and bring slightly warmer temps.

Winds… Gusts will be strongest on Sunday and Monday with peaks around 30mph. Otherwise, afternoon gusts will be in the 20-25mph range out of the southwest.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-80s to low 90s and lows will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s.

And the longer range?… I think we’ll stay dry until the 13th or 14th when a little more moisture tries to move into the region. It’s not impressive and will be spotty, but it’s better than nothing.

Euro ensemble 15-day total precip to the morning of 19 Aug expects 0.29” in the Pagosa area.  This looks reasonable to me. The GFS ensemble expects 0.96” and the Canadian ensemble expects 0.95”. Unfortunately, I think these two forecast models are too optimistic.
Euro ensemble 15-day total precip to the morning of 19 Aug expects 0.29” in the Pagosa area.  This looks reasonable to me. The GFS ensemble expects 0.96” and the Canadian ensemble expects 0.95”. Unfortunately, I think those two forecast models are too optimistic.

Mark will take over on Sunday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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