Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday…

A rain shaft near the Eagle Peaks – pic taken 7/30/2023

A rain shaft near the Eagle Peaks – pic taken 7/30/2023

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Monday – 31 Jul 2023 – 9:00am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 85 and the low this morning was 54. Humidity bottomed out at 20% yesterday afternoon.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 27mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8294 / 19404734 / 1913

Precipitation summary… It was active yesterday, but precip was spotty.  The eastern side of the county and parts of La Plata County did quite well.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports across Archuleta County range from zero to 0.38”. Our friends in the Chromo area were the precip winners.  I circled the higher precip amounts.  A sensor north of Vallecito Lake reported over an inch.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports across Archuleta County range from zero to 0.38”. Our friends in the Chromo area were the precip winners.  I circled the higher precip amounts.  A sensor north of Vallecito Lake reported over an inch.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this morning – This high is to our east – a good position for bringing us monsoon moisture.  The first moisture surge moved to our north last night.  The second one will move in from the south later today and tomorrow.  The purple arrows indicate upper level flow.
Water vapor satellite this morning – This high is to our east – a good position for bringing us monsoon moisture.  The first moisture surge moved to our north last night.  The second one will move in from the south later today and tomorrow.  The purple arrows indicate upper level flow.

There is nothing on radar in our area this morning.

Forecast Highlights…

*** FIRE DANGER IS VERY HIGH. ***

Fire danger is very high

*** Stage 1 Fire Restrictions are in effect for the lower elevations of San Juan National Forest and all of Archuleta County. The minimum fine for violating campfire restrictions is $530. ***

*** Brief periods of localized heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning are possible with scattered showers and thunderstorms. ***

Rest of today through Wednesday… A monsoon moisture surge has moved into our area.  Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms are likely, especially Tuesday when moisture and instability will be at the highest.  

Winds… Afternoon winds will peak mostly in the 15-20mph range, but isolated stronger gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Highs will be in the low to high 80s and lows will be in the high 40s to high 50s.

HRRR forecast radar from noon today to 2am Wednesday – Spotty showers and thunderstorms develop over the mountains first and then over parts of the valley during the late afternoon and into the evening. Then we do it again tomorrow.  Forecast movement is roughly south to north.
HRRR forecast radar from noon today to 2am Wednesday – Spotty showers and thunderstorms develop over the mountains first and then over parts of the valley during the late afternoon and into the evening. Then we do it again tomorrow.  Forecast movement is roughly south to north.
NWS 72-hour precip expects 0.14” in the Pagosa area and 0.11” for Chama. As always with convective precip, amounts will vary considerably.
NWS 72-hour precip expects 0.14” in the Pagosa area and 0.11” for Chama. As always with convective precip, amounts will vary considerably.

Thursday and Friday… Our monsoon moisture will get cut-off.  There will be enough residual moisture to kick up a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms, mostly over the mountains.

Winds… Afternoon winds will peak mostly in the 20-25mph range, but isolated stronger gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Highs will be in the low to high 80s and lows will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s.

Euro 48-hour precip for Thursday and Friday just expects a little bit over our mountains.
Euro 48-hour precip for Thursday and Friday just expects a little bit over our mountains.

Saturday and Sunday… Upper level flow will turn more out of the west-southwest as the high weakens a bit and a weak trough tries to move through the Great Basin. Unfortunately, this will dry us out, kick up the winds a bit, and bring slightly warmer temps.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 20-25mph out of the southwest.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-80s to low 90s and lows will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s.

Euro 48-hour precip for Saturday and Sunday expects a little for the eastern side of the San Juans but nothing on our side.
Euro 48-hour precip for Saturday and Sunday expects a little for the eastern side of the San Juans but nothing on our side.

Keep an eye out for the July summary and August outlook either later today or tomorrow. My next forecast post will be on Wednesday unless something pops up.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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