Do your rain dances and wash your cars!…

Another pretty sunset in our mountain paradise! – pic taken 7/28/2023

Another pretty sunset in our mountain paradise! – pic taken 7/28/2023

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Saturday – 29 Jul 2023 – 5:20pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 86 and today it was 89. The low this morning was 56. Humidity bottomed out at 14% this afternoon.

The peak wind at Stevens Field this afternoon was 24mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8392 / 19474730 / 1913

Precipitation summary… Rain missed most of us yesterday. Leo on Catchpole was the rain lottery winner with a whopping 0.01”!

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this afternoon – Satellite tells me a lot today.  Some of it is good and some isn’t. Monsoon moisture is wrapping around the high that is centered near Farmington – this is good. This will continue through Wednesday – good. The other set of blue arrows indicates northeast to southwest flow across southern NM and northern MX – this is bad. There is also limited monsoon moisture over MX – also bad. This time of year, we should see a whole bunch of moisture over northern MX that is moving north into the Four Corners region. Unfortunately, the current monsoon moisture surge will only last a few days.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon – Satellite tells me a lot today.  Some of it is good and some isn’t.

Monsoon moisture is wrapping around the high that is centered near Farmington – this is good. This will continue through Wednesday – good.

The other set of blue arrows indicates northeast to southwest flow across southern NM and into northern MX – this is bad. There is also limited monsoon moisture over MX – also bad. This time of year, we should see a whole bunch of moisture over northern MX that is moving north into the Four Corners region.

Unfortunately, the current monsoon moisture surge will only last a few days.
Radar at 5:10pm on Saturday – Weak showers are over parts of Archuleta County.  They’re moving very slowly towards the east.
Radar at 5:10pm on Saturday – Weak showers are over parts of Archuleta County.  They’re moving very slowly towards the east.

Forecast Highlights…

*** FIRE DANGER IS VERY HIGH and is slowly getting worse. ***

very high fire danger

*** Stage 1 Fire Restrictions are in effect for the lower elevations of San Juan National Forest and all of Archuleta County. The minimum fine for violating campfire restrictions is $530. ***

*** Brief periods of localized heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning are possible with scattered showers and thunderstorms. ***

Rest of today through Wednesday… A monsoon moisture surge has moved into our area.  Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms are likely, especially Sunday and Tuesday when moisture and instability will be at their highest.  

Winds… Afternoon winds will peak mostly in the 15-20mph range, but isolated stronger gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Sunday through Wednesday highs will be in the low to high 80s and lows will be in the high 40s to high 50s.

NBM total precip through Wednesday evening shows 0.57” in the Pagosa area and 0.52” for Chama. As always with convective precip, amounts will vary considerably.
NBM total precip through Wednesday evening shows 0.57” in the Pagosa area and 0.52” for Chama. As always with convective precip, amounts will vary considerably.

Thursday and Friday… Our monsoon moisture will get cut-off.  There will be enough residual moisture to kick up a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms, but they’ll be spotty.

Winds… Afternoon winds will peak mostly in the 15-20mph range, but isolated stronger gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Highs will be in the low to high 80s and lows will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s.

My next post will be on Monday unless something pops up.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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2 Responses

  1. Rain dance worked. .35″ between 2:55 and 5:15 pm Sunday Navajo River Ranch 7900′ elevation, Chromo.

  2. Mornin’ Shawn. Dad started out with USFS, so I too was somewhat of a wx geek since childhood. Military and fire service in our family, including me. Thanks for your site, enjoy the day! Carmen

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