Better chance for showers and thunderstorms Saturday through Wednesday…

Cumulonimbus clouds east of Trujillo Meadows – pic taken 7/27/2023

Cumulonimbus clouds east of Trujillo Meadows – pic taken 7/27/2023

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Thursday – 27 Jul 2023 – 5:50pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 91 – beating the previous record of 89 set in 1966! The high today was 89 and the low this morning was 57. Humidity bottomed out at 15% this afternoon.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 25mph and this afternoon it was 27mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8290 / 19964734 / 1995

Precipitation summary… Our friends down in the Chromo area were the only ones with measurable precip in the last 24 hours with a whopping 0.01”. Most of us would be quite happy with that!

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this afternoon – The high is centered to our south.  The blue arrows indicate upper-level flow around the high.  A few more showers and thunderstorms developed this afternoon, but the Archuleta County shield kept most of them out of our area.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon – The high is centered to our south.  The blue arrows indicate upper-level flow around the high.  A few more showers and thunderstorms developed this afternoon, but the Archuleta County shield kept most of them out of our area.
Radar at 5:36pm on Thursday – Showers and thunderstorms missed most of the county today, except for… Come on Chromo, share that rain with the rest of the county!
Radar at 5:36pm on Thursday – Showers and thunderstorms missed most of the county today, except for… Come on Chromo, share that rain with the rest of the county!

Forecast Highlights…

*** FIRE DANGER IS VERY HIGH and is slowly getting worse. ***

very high fire danger

*** Stage 1 Fire Restrictions are in effect for the lower elevations of San Juan National Forest and all of Archuleta County. The minimum fine for violating campfire restrictions is $530. ***

Rest of Today through Friday… The high pressure is currently to our south but will continue to wobble around the region.  Moisture and instability have increased in our area, but both remain marginal for showers and thunderstorms. There continues to be a slight chance for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms, mostly over the mountains.  Please keep an eye out for new fires!

Winds… Afternoon winds will peak mostly in the 15-20mph range, but isolated stronger gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Highs will be in the high 80s to mid-90s and lows will be in the high 40s to mid-50s.

NBM total precip to Friday evening shows nothing in the Pagosa area and a trace for Chama. It keeps the precip over the mountains.
NBM total precip to Friday evening shows nothing in the Pagosa area and a trace for Chama. It keeps the precip over the mountains.

Saturday through Wednesday… Saturday is a transition day as the high slowly gets in a more favorable position for an uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity. Finally, things line up pretty good Sunday through Wednesday. I expect most of the county to get some rain! 

Winds… Afternoon winds will peak mostly in the 15-20mph range, but isolated stronger gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Saturday highs will be in the mid-80s to low 90s and lows will be in the high 40s to high 50s. Sunday through Wednesday highs will be in the low to high 80s and lows will be in the high 40s to high 50s.

NBM total precip through Wednesday evening shows 0.71” in the Pagosa area and 0.68” for Chama. I think that this is a bit optimistic, but as always with convective precip, amounts will vary considerably.
NBM total precip through Wednesday evening shows 0.71” in the Pagosa area and 0.68” for Chama. I think that this is a bit optimistic, but as always with convective precip, amounts will vary considerably.

My next post will be Saturday afternoon unless something pops up.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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2 Responses

  1. Shawn, I realize I do not have your email address but wanted to thank you and Arlene and Tommy for trying to get Clancy on 84 yesterday. He finally stopped after a long run. With a grateful heart. Laura and Cheryl

    1. Laura & Cheryl, we recognized Laura & Clancy right away. I had a whistle & we were trying to use Tommy as bait. So very happy it all turned out ok.
      Arleen & Shawn

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