Afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity will increase this weekend…

A couple of cumulonimbus clouds developed yesterday afternoon, but stayed over the mountains, mostly on the other side of The Divide – pic taken 7/24/2023

A couple of cumulonimbus clouds developed yesterday afternoon, but stayed over the mountains, mostly on the other side of The Divide. Note the brown fields. Fire danger is VERY HIGH! – pic taken 7/24/2023

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Tuesday – 25 Jul 2023 – 6:20pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature this afternoon was 92 and the low this morning was 55. Humidity bottomed out at 10% this afternoon.

The peak wind at Stevens Field this afternoon was 29mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8294 / 19404736 / 1995

Precipitation summary… There has been no measurable precip reported in the last 24 hours.

The first week of Pagosa Springs monsoon is brought to you by The Springs Resort! Enjoy the season of Rain and Relaxation! $25 Discounted Local Rate Available 9 am – 10 pm, 7-Days a Week - *Must have a valid state-issued ID, with residence within 60 miles*
The first week of Pagosa Springs monsoon is brought to you by The Springs Resort!
Enjoy the season of Rain and Relaxation!
$25 Discounted Local Rate Available 9 am – 10 pm, 7-Days a Week –
*Must have a valid state-issued ID, with residence within 60 miles*

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this afternoon – The high is near us and suppressing convective development. The blue arrows indicate upper level flow around the high.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon – The high is near us and suppressing convective development. The blue arrows indicate upper level flow around the high.
Radar at 5:24pm on Tuesday – Normally this would just indicate our Four Corners radar donut hole, but in this case, it indicates subsidence (downward vertical motion) under the high. Compare this radar image to the satellite image above.
Radar at 5:24pm on Tuesday – Normally this would just indicate our Four Corners radar donut hole, but in this case, it indicates subsidence (downward vertical motion) under the high. Compare this radar image to the satellite image above.

Forecast Highlights…

*** FIRE DANGER IS VERY HIGH and is slowly getting worse. ***

fire danger is very high

*** Stage 1 Fire Restrictions are in effect for the lower elevations of San Juan National Forest and all of Archuleta County. The minimum fine for violating campfire restrictions is $530. ***

Rest of Today through Friday… The high pressure is wandering around the Four Corners area.  Unfortunately we’re almost under the center of the high, where subsidence – downward vertical motion – is hindering convective active activity and moisture. There is a slight chance for spotty afternoon showers and thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday.  Please keep an eye out for new fires!

Winds… Afternoon winds will peak mostly in the 15-20mph range, but isolated stronger gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Highs will be in the high 80s to mid-90s and lows will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s.

NBM total precip to Friday evening shows 0.15” in the Pagosa area and 0.21” for Chama. This will be spotty convective precip so amounts will vary considerably.
NBM total precip to Friday evening shows 0.15” in the Pagosa area and 0.21” for Chama. This will be spotty convective precip so amounts will vary considerably.

Saturday through Tuesday… My forecast confidence is increasing that we’ll see more moisture and more instability leading to a better chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Winds… Afternoon winds will peak mostly in the 15-20mph range, but isolated stronger gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Saturday highs will be in the mid-80s to low 90s and lows will be in the high 40s to high 50s. Sunday through Tuesday highs will be in the low to high 80s and lows will be in the high 40s to high 50s.

NBM total precip through Tuesday evening shows 0.70” in the Pagosa area and 0.84” for Chama.
NBM total precip through Tuesday evening shows 0.70” in the Pagosa area and 0.84” for Chama.

My next post will be on Thursday unless something pops up.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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2 Responses

    1. Frank, the polar front jet is continuing to dip into the Midwest keeping subtropical ridge to our west. The jet & the ridge are like a couple of sumo wrestlers pushing on each other & the jet has been winning continuing what looks like a spring weather regime through all of July. We’ve been under the high rather than to the west of it. So we’re seeing subsidence which is downward forced air rather than uplifting. Ridge retrogrades to our east starting this weekend. The monsoon should begin.

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