Spotty afternoon showers and thunderstorms…

Flowers are poppin’ in the high country – pics taken 7/21/2023

Flowers are poppin’ in the high country – pics taken 7/21/2023

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Sunday – 23 Jul 2023 – 3:00pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature this afternoon was 89 and the low this morning was 52. Humidity bottomed out at 14% this afternoon.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 20mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8292 / 19404631 / 1973

Precipitation summary… Finally a couple of spotty showers gave a few lucky spots some measurable rain!

CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports range from zero to 0.32”. Hillary was the big rain lottery in the Chromo area!
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports range from zero to 0.32”. Hillary was the big rain lottery in the Chromo area!
The first week of Pagosa Springs monsoon is brought to you by The Springs Resort! Enjoy the season of Rain and Relaxation! $25 Discounted Local Rate Available 9 am – 10 pm, 7-Days a Week - *Must have a valid state-issued ID, with residence within 60 miles*
The first week of Pagosa Springs monsoon is brought to you by The Springs Resort! Enjoy the season of Rain and Relaxation! $25 Discounted Local Rate Available 9 am – 10 pm, 7-Days a Week – *Must have a valid state-issued ID, with residence within 60 miles*

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this afternoon – The high is just to our west.  That puts us on the more stable side of the high.  The blue arrows indicate upper level flow around the high. The bulk of the moisture is staying to our west.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon – The high is just to our west.  That puts us on the more stable side of the high.  The blue arrows indicate upper level flow around the high. The bulk of the moisture is staying to our west.
Radar at 2:40pm on Sunday – A few showers and thunderstorms have developed mostly over the western San Juans.  They are moving very slowly towards the south-southeast.
Radar at 2:40pm on Sunday – A few showers and thunderstorms have developed mostly over the western San Juans.  They are moving very slowly towards the south-southeast.

Forecast Highlights…

*** FIRE DANGER IS VERY HIGH and is slowly getting worse. ***

Fire Danger Very High2 2

*** Stage 1 Fire Restrictions are in effect for the lower elevations of San Juan National Forest and all of Archuleta County. The minimum fine for violating campfire restrictions is $530. ***

Rest of Today through Friday… The high pressure is wandering around the Four Corners area.  Unfortunately we’re on the east, more stable side of the high, where subsidence – downward vertical motion – is hindering convective active activity and moisture. Each afternoon there is a slight chance for spotty showers and thunderstorms.  Please keep an eye out for new fires!

Winds… Afternoon winds will peak mostly in the 15-20mph range, but isolated stronger gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Highs will be in the high 80s to mid-90s and lows will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s.

NBM total precip to Friday evening shows 0.08” in the Pagosa area and 0.10” for Chama. Euro ensemble precip to Friday evening shows 0.11” in the Pagosa area and 0.020” for Chama. This will be spotty convective precip so amounts will vary considerably.
NBM total precip to Friday evening shows 0.08” in the Pagosa area and 0.10” for Chama. Euro ensemble precip to Friday evening shows 0.11” in the Pagosa area and 0.020” for Chama. This will be spotty convective precip so amounts will vary considerably.

Beyond Friday?… The forecast models, which haven’t been reliable lately, indicate that the high will slip slightly to our east – a good thing – and we’ll see an increase in monsoon moisture, instability, and shower/thunderstorm activity. Based on what’s been happening the last couple of weeks, I’m skeptical.

NBM 10-day total precip shows 0.62” in the Pagosa area and 0.85” for Chama. Euro ensemble 10-day total precip shows 0.55” in the Pagosa area and 0.68” for Chama. This will be spotty convective precip so amounts will vary considerably.
NBM 10-day total precip shows 0.62” in the Pagosa area and 0.85” for Chama. Euro ensemble 10-day total precip shows 0.55” in the Pagosa area and 0.68” for Chama. This will be spotty convective precip so amounts will vary considerably.

My next post will be on Tuesday evening unless something pops up.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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