Spotty afternoon showers and thunderstorms starting Wednesday…

Another beautiful sunset in paradise! – pic taken 7/14/2023

Another beautiful sunset in paradise! – pic taken 7/14/2023

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Saturday – 15 Jul 2023 – 6:45pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature this afternoon was 89 and the low this morning was 50. Humidity bottomed out at 9% this afternoon.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 30mph. Here in O’Neal Park we had a peak wind of 32mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8492 / 19484633 / 1962

Precipitation summary… No measurable precip has fallen recently.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this afternoon – The high has moved over central CA as expected.  The blue arrows indicate the clockwise flow around the high. For us it’s a dry northwest flow. The high is expected to shift east towards the Four Corners by late Tuesday which will allow subtropical, monsoon moisture to slowly filter into our region.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon – The high has moved over central CA as expected.  The blue arrows indicate the clockwise flow around the high. For us it’s a dry northwest flow. The high is expected to shift east towards the Four Corners by late Tuesday which will allow subtropical, monsoon moisture to slowly filter into our region.

Radar shows nothing in our area this afternoon.

Forecast Highlights…

*** FIRE DANGER IS VERY HIGH and will gradually get worse as temps warm and fuels continue to dry out. ***

very high fire danger

*** Stage 1 Fire Restrictions are in effect for the lower elevations of San Juan National Forest. The minimum fine for violating campfire restrictions is $530. ***

Map of Stage 1 Fire Restrictions
Map of Stage 1 Fire Restrictions

*** Record high temps possible through Tuesday. ***

Rest of Today through Tuesday… The subtropical high has repositioned over central CA pushing dry northwest flow into our area. It’s a stagnant pattern that will result in near record temps. There will be no precip in our area Sunday and Monday. By Tuesday afternoon a slow increase of moisture will begin so an isolated shower or thunderstorm could develop over the mountains.

Winds… Each afternoon winds will peak in the 20-25mph range.

Temps… ** Highs will be in the high 80s to high 90s.  The warm spots, like our friends in Arboles, will break 100. ** Morning lows will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s.

Record high temps…

Friday 94 occurred in 1934 – High temp at Stevens Field yesterday was 90

Saturday 92 occurred in 1948 – High temp at Stevens Field today was 89

Sunday 92 occurred in 1956

Monday 91 occurred in 1910

Tuesday 92 occurred in 1909

Wednesday through Friday… Monsoon moisture will slowly filter into our area. Things will start slowly with just a few scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon, mostly over the mountains. Unfortunately, we’re more likely to see erratic gusty winds and lightning, than we are rain these first few days.  Please keep an eye out for new fires!

Winds… Afternoon winds will peak mostly in the 20-25mph range, but isolated stronger gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Highs will be in mid-80s to low 90s and lows will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s.

Saturday and Sunday… The ridge will park itself just to our west along the AZ/NM border resulting in a weak monsoon pattern. Moisture will get more established over the area and lead to an increase in afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Winds… Afternoon winds will peak in the 15-20mph range, but isolated stronger gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Highs will be in the low to high 80s and lows will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s.

NBM precip to late Sunday evening shows 0.27” in the Pagosa area and around 0.60” in our mountains. This will be spotty convective precip so amounts will vary considerably.
NBM precip to late Sunday evening shows 0.27” in the Pagosa area and around 0.60” in our mountains. This will be spotty convective precip so amounts will vary considerably.
Euro 500mb anomaly next Saturday evening – 500mb is roughly 18,000ft and a good level to track the overall pattern.  The high is expected to wobble around the Four Corners area. The green arrows indicate the clockwise flow around the high. My observations:  1. This is a weak monsoon pattern for us. Ideally the high would be to our southeast which would put us in a more moist south or southwest flow. 2. Upper level flow near the high will be light, around 10mph.  I like this! It means there is a potential for “slow movers”.  Slow moving showers and thunderstorms can drop a surprising amount of rain over small areas. Rain lottery winners could exceed the multi-day NBM total of 0.27” from a single cell.
Euro 500mb anomaly next Saturday evening – 500mb is roughly 18,000ft and a good level to track the overall pattern.

The high is expected to wobble around the Four Corners area. The green arrows indicate the clockwise flow around the high.

My observations:  1. This is a weak monsoon pattern for us. Ideally the high would be to our southeast which would put us in a more moist south or southwest flow. 2. Upper level flow near the high will be light, around 10mph.  I like this! It means there is a potential for “slow movers”.  Slow moving showers and thunderstorms can drop a surprising amount of rain over small areas. Rain lottery winners could exceed the multi-day NBM total of 0.27” from a single cell.

Mark will take over tomorrow.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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One Response

  1. Thanks for your weather reports. Helps a lot when planning such things as when to get my carpets cleaned

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