A colorful sunset last night – pic taken 7/12/2023
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Thursday – 13 Jul 2023 – 3:00pm
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 87 and the low this morning was 50. Humidity bottomed out at 15% yesterday afternoon.
The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 26mph. Here in O’Neal Park we had a peak wind of 27mph.
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 83 | 98 / 1939 | 44 | 30 / 1941 |
Precipitation summary… No measurable precip has fallen recently.
Forecast discussion…
Note the spotty showers and weak thunderstorms over southeast AZ, southern NM, and extending south into Mexico. It’s weak, but this is the beginning of the first surge of monsoon moisture. Unfortunately, that moisture can’t move into our area until the high shifts towards us the second half of next week.
Radar shows nothing in our area this afternoon.
Forecast Highlights…
*** FIRE DANGER IS VERY HIGH and will gradually get worse as temps warm and fuels continue to dry out. ***
*** Stage 1 Fire Restrictions are in effect for the lower elevations of San Juan National Forest. The minimum fine for violating campfire restrictions is $530. ***
*** Record high temps possible Friday through Tuesday. ***
Rest of Today through Tuesday… The subtropical ridge will shift west towards southern CA and keep us dry. The bad is news is that the stagnant pattern will result in near record temps. The good news is that the upper level gradient will weaken resulting in slightly weaker afternoon winds.
Winds… Each afternoon winds will peak in the 20-25mph range.
Temps… Lows tonight will be in the mid-40s to low 50s. ** Friday through Tuesday highs will be in the high 80s to high 90s. The warm spots, like our friends in Arboles, will break 100. ** Morning lows will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s.
Record high temps…
Friday 94 occurred in 1934
Saturday 92 occurred in 1948
Sunday 92 occurred in 1956
Monday 91 occurred in 1910
Tuesday 92 occurred in 1909
Wednesday through Friday… Monsoon moisture will start to filter into our area. Things will start slowly with just a few scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon, mostly over the mountains. Unfortunately, we’re more likely to see erratic gusty winds and lightning, than we are rain these first few days.
Winds… Afternoon winds will peak mostly in the 20-25mph range, but isolated stronger gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.
Temps… Highs will be in mid-80s to low 90s and lows will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s.
Next weekend and beyond… The monsoon will ramp up a bit with more moisture and a better chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Temps will cool a few degrees back towards average.
My next post will be on Saturday afternoon.
– Shawn
