Record high temps possible Friday through Tuesday…

Our state flower back-dropped by Squaretop Mountain – pic taken 7/11/2023

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Tuesday – 11 Jul 2023 – 6:30pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 86 and the low this morning was 50. Humidity bottomed out at 17% yesterday afternoon.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 36mph. Here in O’Neal Park we had a peak wind of 25mph.

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
83	93 / 1958	44	25 / 1915

Precipitation summary… A few spotty raindrops fell but there was no measurable precip.

Fire update… Both fires are nearly 100% contained! Unless something changes, there will be no more updates.

Forecast discussion…

*Water vapor satellite this afternoon – Flow around the high is clockwise. It’s still dry over most of the southwest US. Monsoon moisture is finally beginning to stage over northern Mexico.*

Forecast Highlights…

*** FIRE DANGER IS HIGH and will gradually get worse as the fuels continue to dry out. ***

*** Stage 1 Fire Restrictions will begin on Thursday, 13 July at 12:01am for the lower elevations of San Juan National Forest. The minimum fine for violating campfire restrictions is $530. ***

*** Record high temps possible Friday through Tuesday. ***

Rest of Today through Tuesday… The subtropical ridge will wobble between southern NM and southern CA through the week and keep us dry. The bad is news is that the stagnant pattern will result in near record temps. The good news is that the upper level gradient will weaken resulting in slightly weaker afternoon winds.

Winds… Each afternoon winds will peak in the 20-25mph range.

Temps… Lows tonight will be in the low 40s to low 50s. Wednesday and Thursday highs will be in the mid-80s to mid-90s. The warm spots will flirt with 100. Lows will be in the low 40s to low 50s. Friday through Tuesday highs will be in the high 80s to high 90s. The warm spots, like our friends in Arboles, will break 100. Morning lows will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s.

Record high temps…

Friday 94 occurred in 1934

Saturday 92 occurred in 1948

Sunday 92 occurred in 1956

Monday 91 occurred in 1910

Tuesday 92 occurred in 1909

The next 15 days? Monsoon?… Weak monsoon moisture could start moving into the area starting around the 19th. Things will start slowly with storms more likely to cause erratic gusty winds and lightning, than rain. The good news is that the long range models continue to hint that the monsoon will finally kick into gear during the last week of July!

This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip and total precip for the next 15 days to early on 26 July. The charts are read to left to right and times are in Zulu. Starting at the top – These are 24-hour precip amounts for 50 different versions of the forecast model. The weather pattern will start getting more active around the 19th. The middle chart plots the control and the mean of the 50 amounts. I pay most attention to the mean. It indicates around 0.10” each day starting the 19th. The bottom chart plots the total precip. It’s a steady rise starting around the 19th and finishes just under 0.50” by late on 25 July. — *This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip and total precip for the next 15 days to early on 26 July. The charts are read to left to right and times are in Zulu.*

*Starting at the top – These are 24-hour precip amounts for 50 different versions of the forecast model. The weather pattern will start getting more active around the 19^th.*

*The middle chart plots the control and the mean of the 50 amounts. I pay most attention to the mean. It indicates around 0.10” each day starting the 19^th.*

*The bottom chart plots the total precip. It’s a steady rise starting around the 19^th and finishes just under 0.50” by late on 25 July.*

My next post will be on Thursday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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2 Responses

Carl and Jane Bigler says:

July 12, 2023 at 8:53 am

Nice to meet you on the hike to Quartz Lake! Looking forward to the monsoons!

Reply
1. Arleen Pro says:
  
  July 12, 2023 at 9:11 am
  
  Jane & Carl, so wonderful to meet you yesterday! We’re so looking forward to the monsoon & these high temps easing up. We hope to see you out on trails again some day soon.
  
  Arleen & Shawn
  
  Reply

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