Breezy, warm, and dry – high fire danger persists…

Sunset over Road Canyon Reservoir near Creede – pic taken 6/29/2023

Sunset over Road Canyon Reservoir near Creede – pic taken 6/29/2023

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Friday – 7 Jul 2023 – 11:50am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 85 and the low this morning was 51. Humidity bottomed out at 11% yesterday afternoon.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 33mph. Here in O’Neal Park we had a peak wind of 28mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8399 / 19894327 / 1941

Precipitation summary… No precip was reported in the last 24 hours.

Fire updates…

Chris Mountain Fire on Inci Web: https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident-information/cosjf-chris-mountain-fire

Chris Mountain Fire on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100094353994683

Fire Weather and Avalanche Center: https://www.fireweatheravalanche.org/fire/

Fire and Smoke map: https://fire.airnow.gov/

Archuleta County, CO Sheriff’s Office: https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100068416028570

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this morning – The high is wobbling around the southern NM area.  The southwest US is very dry. There is no sign of monsoon moisture headed our way.
Water vapor satellite this morning – The high is wobbling around the southern NM area.  The southwest US is very dry. There is no sign of monsoon moisture headed our way.

There is nothing on radar in our area this morning.

Forecast Highlights…

*** A Red Flag Warning has been issued. Gusty winds, low humidity, and dry fuels will result in DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS Friday at noon to Friday at 9pm. ***

Red Flag Warning

*** A Fire Weather Watch has also been issued for Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening. Gusty winds, low humidity, and dry fuels will result in DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS. *** This will be upgraded to a Red Flag Warning at some point.

*** Winds will gust 25-30mph each afternoon through Tuesday. ***

*** Fire danger is high and will gradually get worse. ***

Rest of Today through Thursday… The subtropical ridge will remain to our south giving us dry and breezy conditions. Monday is the exception as a weak trough slides to our north.  Instability will increase but moisture will be minimal.  A spotty shower or thunderstorm is possible Monday afternoon, mostly over the mountains. By Wednesday the good news is that the upper level gradient will weaken a little as the high moves a little farther north resulting in slightly weaker afternoon winds.

Temps… Today through Saturday highs will be in the low 80s to low 90s.  The warm spots, including our friends in Arboles, will get into the mid-90s.  Lows will be in the low 40s to low 50s. Sunday through Thursday highs will be in the mid-80s to mid-90s. The warm spots will flirt with 100. Lows will be in the low 40s to low 50s.

Winds… Today through Tuesday afternoon winds will gust 25-30mph out of the southwest. The windy spots could hit 35mph Friday afternoon. Wednesday afternoon and Thursday afternoon winds will peak in the 20-25mph range.

NBM precip to late Thursday evening shows none in our area.
NBM precip to late Thursday evening shows none in our area.

And the long range?  Monsoon?… Weak monsoon moisture could start moving into the area on or slightly after 18 Jul. Things will start slowly with storms more likely to cause erratic gusty winds and lightning, than rain. Hopefully the monsoon will finally kick into gear during the last week of July.

Euro ensemble precip to 21 Jul at 6pm expects 0.23” in the Pagosa area. Most of this is expected on or after 18 Jul when moisture slowly increases from the south.
Euro ensemble precip to 21 Jul at 6pm expects 0.23” in the Pagosa area. Most of this is expected on or after 18 Jul when moisture slowly increases from the south.

My next post will be on Sunday afternoon.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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