Gusty winds and blowing dust possible on Tuesday…

Wolf Creek Pass from the Continental Divide Trail – pic taken 6/21/2023

Wolf Creek Pass from the Continental Divide Trail – pic taken 6/21/2023

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Saturday – 24 Jun 2023 – 6:15pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature this afternoon was 79 and the low this morning was 36. Humidity bottomed out at 7% this afternoon.  A few spots dipped into the mid-20s this morning!

With humidity at 7% and dew points around 20, there will be a 40-45 degree difference between our highs and lows.

The peak wind at Stevens Field this afternoon was 24mph. Here in O’Neal Park we had a peak wind of 22mph.

*** The average last freeze is 31 May, but we’re not out of the woods.  Average low temps remain in the mid-30s into late June so temps can still drop below freezing. ***

What is a cold spot? Cold spots are lower areas like valleys, drainages, and stream areas.  If your morning low temps are usually at the bottom of our forecast range, you are in a cold spot.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8292 / 19903726 / 1951

Precipitation summary… There was no precip reported in the last 24-hours.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this afternoon – There is a lot of dry air over the Four Corners area.  A series of weak troughs continues to move into the West Coast and fall apart as they move east. However, those troughs contribute to our gusty winds. One of those trough will move through our area on Tuesday and increase our winds more and kick up a spotty shower or thunderstorm.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon – There is a lot of dry air over the Four Corners area.  A series of weak troughs continues to move into the West Coast and fall apart as they move east. However, those troughs contribute to our gusty winds. One of those troughs will move through our area on Tuesday and increase our winds more and kick up a spotty shower or thunderstorm.

There is nothing on radar in our region this afternoon.

Forecast Highlights…

*** The cold spots will dip below freezing again tonight and then continue to flirt with freezing through most of next week. ***

*** Tuesday afternoon winds will gust to 30-40mph and there is a potential for blowing dust and a spotty shower or thunderstorm. ***

River flow…

San Juan River flow this afternoon is 942cfs – over 200cfs higher than the median. There is still nearly a 200cfs difference between the high and low flow each day, but the overall trend is gradually down. On 23 June Navajo Reservoir had an inflow of 2,114cfs, an outflow of 1,000cfs, but stayed nearly level. Releases are on their way down and are expected to drop to 500cfs by 26 Jun. Here’s the link for more info: Navajo Dam Project Notices
San Juan River flow this afternoon is 942cfs – over 200cfs higher than the median. There is still nearly a 200cfs difference between the high and low flow each day, but the overall trend is gradually down.

On 23 June Navajo Reservoir had an inflow of 2,114cfs, an outflow of 1,000cfs, but stayed nearly level. Releases are on their way down and are expected to drop to 500cfs by 26 Jun. Here’s the link for more info: Navajo Dam Project Notices

Tonight through Monday… A ridge will remain stationary just to our east and a trough will linger along the West Coast.  This puts us in the sunny, dry, warmer, and breezy spot in between.

Temps… Tonight lows will be in the low 30s to low 40s.  Sunday and Monday highs will be in the high 70s to high 80s and lows will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be in the 20-30mph range.

Late Monday night and Tuesday… A trough will slide by to our north.  Instability will increase and there will be a little more moisture so there’s a slight chance for a spotty shower or thunderstorm, mostly over the mountains. Gusty afternoon winds will be the main problem with a potential for gusts to 40mph and blowing dust.

Temps… Highs will be in the high 70s to high 80s and lows will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will peak in the 30-40mph range.

NBM wind gusts on Tuesday at 3pm expects 45mph for the Pagosa area, 46mph for Chama, and around 60mph for mountain ridges.
NBM wind gusts on Tuesday at 3pm expects 45mph for the Pagosa area, 46mph for Chama, and around 60mph for mountain ridges.
NBM precip to late Tuesday evening expects nothing for us while the Euro expects 0.20”. My expectations are low.  I expect most of us to stay dry.  The rain lottery winners will be lucky to get 0.10”.
NBM precip to late Tuesday evening expects nothing for us while the Euro expects 0.20”.
My expectations are low.  I think most of us will stay dry.  The rain lottery winners will be lucky to get 0.10”.

Wednesday through Friday… Same story as the last week or two: A ridge will remain over the Plains while a trough lingers along the West Coast.  We’re stuck in the middle where it’s dry, warm, and breezy.

Temps… Highs will be in the high 70s to high 80s and lows will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s.

Winds… Wednesday and Thursday afternoon gusts will peak in the 25-30mph and then Friday they’ll gust into the 20-25mph range.

Mark will take over tomorrow.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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