Continued warm, sunny, dry, and breezy…

Still LOTS of snow on the Lobo Overlook road (can’t drive up there but you can hike it) – pic taken 6/21/2023

Still LOTS of snow on the Lobo Overlook road (can’t drive up there but you can hike it) – pic taken 6/21/2023

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Thursday – 22 Jun 2023 – 5:15pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature this afternoon was 80 and the low this morning was 43. Humidity bottomed out at 12% this afternoon.

With humidity at 12% and dew points around 30, there will be a 40-45 degree difference between our highs and lows.  ** The cold spots will continue to flirt with freezing temps each morning. **

The peak wind at Stevens Field this afternoon was 31mph. Here in O’Neal Park we had a peak wind of 25mph.

*** The average last freeze is 31 May, but we’re not out of the woods.  Average low temps remain in the mid-30s into late June so temps can still drop below freezing. ***

What is a cold spot? Cold spots are lower areas like valleys, drainages, and stream areas.  If your morning low temps are usually at the bottom of our forecast range, you are in a cold spot.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8193 / 19543723 / 1951

Precipitation summary… There was no precip reported in the last 24-hours.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this afternoon – We are stuck between the trough along the CA coast and the ridge over the Plains. The trough will move through northern UT and clip northwest CO on Friday and kick up our winds.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon – We are stuck between the trough along the CA coast and the ridge over the Plains. The trough will move through northern UT and clip northwest CO on Friday and kick up our winds.

There is nothing on radar in our region this afternoon.

Forecast Highlights…

*** Lots of sun, warm, dry, and breezy afternoons. ***

*** Gusty winds Friday afternoon could lead to blowing dust. ***

River flow…

San Juan River flow this afternoon is 1,070cfs – almost 200cfs higher than the median. Note that there is still nearly a 200cfs difference between the high and low flow each day.  This is the snow that is melting on the north side of our mountain peaks. On 21 June Navajo Reservoir had an inflow of 2,695cfs, an outflow of 2,140cfs, and stayed nearly level. Releases are on their way down and are expected to drop to 500cfs by 26 Jun. Here’s the link for more info: Navajo Dam Project Notices
San Juan River flow this afternoon is 1,070cfs – almost 200cfs higher than the median. Note that there is still nearly a 200cfs difference between the high and low flow each day.  This is the snow that is melting on the north side of our mountain peaks.

On 21 June Navajo Reservoir had an inflow of 2,695cfs, an outflow of 2,140cfs, and stayed nearly level. Releases are on their way down and are expected to drop to 500cfs by 26 Jun. Here’s the link for more info: Navajo Dam Project Notices

Tonight through next Thursday… A ridge will remain stationary just to our east and a trough will linger along the West Coast.  This puts us in the sunny, dry, warmer, and breezy spot in between.

Temps… Thursday, Friday, and Saturday highs will be in the mid-70s to mid-80s and lows will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s.  Sunday through Thursday highs will be in the high 70s to high 80s and lows will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be in the 20-30mph range. Friday the windy spots could hit 35mph.  *** Blowing dust is possible in the late Friday afternoon. ***

NBM 10-day precip expects nothing for us.
NBM 10-day precip expects nothing for us.

My next post will be on Saturday.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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