Sunny, warm, dry, and breezy…

It was a glorious day for a hike! – pic taken 6/20/2023

It was a glorious day for a hike! – pic taken 6/20/2023

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Tuesday – 18 Jun 2023 – 8:00pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature this afternoon was 77 and the low this morning was 47. Humidity bottomed out at 11% this afternoon.

Don’t be fooled by the warm low temps this morning!  Cloud cover kept us warmer than expected this morning. With humidity at 11% and dew points around 30, there will be a 40-45 degree difference between our highs and lows.  ** The cold spots will continue to flirt with freezing temps each morning. **

The peak wind at Stevens Field this afternoon was 25mph. Here in O’Neal Park we had a peak wind of 22mph.

*** The average last freeze is 31 May, but we’re not out of the woods.  Average low temps remain in the mid-30s into late June so temps can still drop below freezing. ***

What is a cold spot? Cold spots are lower areas like valleys, drainages, and stream areas.  If your morning low temps are usually at the bottom of our forecast range, you are in a cold spot.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8092 / 19893728 / 1973

Precipitation summary… There was no precip reported in the last 24-hours.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this afternoon – It’s pretty dry over the Four Corners region. We’re caught in the middle between the trough along the West Coast and the ridge extending north through the Plains.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon – It’s pretty dry over the Four Corners region. We’re caught in the middle between the trough along the West Coast and the ridge extending north through the Plains.

There is nothing on radar in our region this afternoon.

Forecast Highlights…

*** Lots of sun, warmer, dry, and breezy afternoons. ***

River flow…

San Juan River flow this afternoon is 1,110cfs. Flow last year at this time was just 331cfs. Note the spike above 600cfs last year.  That was caused by the early onset of last year’s monsoon. On 19 June Navajo Reservoir had an inflow of 2,782cfs, an outflow of 3,030cfs, and dropped 0.16 feet. A gradual decrease in releases has begun and is expected to drop to 500cfs by 26 Jun. Here’s the link for more info: Navajo Dam Project Notices
San Juan River flow this afternoon is 1,110cfs. Flow last year at this time was just 331cfs. Note the spike above 600cfs last year.  That was caused by the early onset of last year’s monsoon.

On 19 June Navajo Reservoir had an inflow of 2,782cfs, an outflow of 3,030cfs, and dropped 0.16 feet. A gradual decrease in releases has begun and is expected to drop to 500cfs by 26 Jun. Here’s the link for more info: Navajo Dam Project Notices

Tonight through next Tuesday… A ridge will remain stationary just to our east and a trough will linger along the West Coast.  This puts us in the sunny, dry, warmer, and breezy spot in between.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-70s to mid-80s and lows will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be in the 20-30mph range. Friday the windy spots could hit 35mph.

NBM 10-day precip expects nothing for us.
NBM 10-day precip expects nothing for us.

My next post will be on Thursday.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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