Lots of sun, dry, warmer, and breezy…

Piedra River canyon yesterday morning as a storm approaches – pic taken 6/17/2023

Piedra River canyon yesterday morning as a storm approaches – pic taken 6/17/2023

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Sunday – 18 Jun 2023 – 5:30pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature this afternoon was 76 and the low this morning was 38. Humidity bottomed out at 17% this afternoon.

* The cold spots were right at freezing the last two mornings. *

The peak wind at Stevens Field this afternoon was 27mph. Here in O’Neal Park we had a peak wind of 28mph.

*** The average last freeze is 31 May, but we’re not out of the woods.  Average low temps remain in the mid-30s into the third week of June so temps can still drop below freezing. ***

What is a cold spot? Cold spots are lower areas like valleys, drainages, and stream areas.  If your morning low temps are usually at the bottom of our forecast range, you are in a cold spot.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7993 / 19543622 / 1950

Precipitation summary… A couple of bands of showers moved through yesterday.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports range from 0.03” to 0.19”.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports range from 0.03” to 0.19”.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this afternoon – Things are drying out across the region and drier air will continue to move in from the southwest.  We’ll be between the trough along the West Coast and the ridge to our east for the next 7-10 days.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon – Things are drying out across the region and drier air will continue to move in from the southwest.  We’ll be between the trough along the West Coast and the ridge to our east for the next 7-10 days.

There is nothing on radar in our region this afternoon.

Forecast Highlights…

*** Lots of sun, warmer, dry, and breezy afternoons. ***

River flow…

San Juan River flow this afternoon is 1,030cfs. Flow last year at this time was just 137cfs. On 17 June Navajo Reservoir had an inflow of 3,056cfs, an outflow of 3,190cfs, and dropped 0.13 feet. A gradual decrease in releases has begun and is expected to drop to 500cfs by 26 Jun. Here’s the link for more info: Navajo Dam Project Notices
San Juan River flow this afternoon is 1,030cfs. Flow last year at this time was just 137cfs.

On 17 June Navajo Reservoir had an inflow of 3,056cfs, an outflow of 3,190cfs, and dropped 0.13 feet. A gradual decrease in releases has begun and is expected to drop to 500cfs by 26 Jun. Here’s the link for more info: Navajo Dam Project Notices

Rest of today through next Sunday… A ridge will remain stationary just to our east and a trough will linger along the West Coast.  This puts us in the sunny, dry, warmer, and breezy spot in between.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-70s to mid-80s and lows will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be in the 20-25mph range. Monday and Friday the windy spots could hit 30mph.

NBM 10-day precip expects nothing for us.
NBM 10-day precip expects nothing for us.
NBM wind gusts each afternoon from Sunday to Friday range from a low of 23mph on Wednesday to a max of 30mph on Monday and Friday.
NBM wind gusts each afternoon from Sunday to Friday range from a low of 23mph on Wednesday to a max of 30mph on Monday and Friday.

My next post will be Tuesday.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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