Scattered showers and thunderstorms through tomorrow afternoon…

Wild irises under blue skies this morning – pic taken 6/16/2023

Wild irises under blue skies this morning – pic taken 6/16/2023

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Friday – 16 Jun 2023 – 6:30pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature this afternoon was 71 and the low this morning was 39. Humidity bottomed out at 22% this afternoon.

The cold spots were right at freezing this morning.

The peak wind at Stevens Field this afternoon was 41mph. Here in O’Neal Park we had a peak wind of 32mph.  They were outflow gusts associated with a band of showers that moved through in the afternoon.

*** The average last freeze is 31 May, but we’re not out of the woods.  Average low temps remain in the mid-30s into the third week of June so temps can still drop below freezing. ***

What is a cold spot? Cold spots are lower areas like valleys, drainages, and stream areas.  If your morning low temps are usually at the bottom of our forecast range, you are in a cold spot.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7888 / 19853624 / 1974

Precipitation summary… A few folks reported a trace of rain yesterday but there was no measurable precip reported.

Drought update…

16 Jun 2023 pm CO drought map
Eastern Colorado has had a very wet spring and it has nearly lifted them out of drought conditions!

Forecast discussion…

Infrared satellite this evening – A band of showers is moving east but it will weaken this evening. The trough will move through tomorrow and kick up another line of showers and thunderstorms.
Infrared satellite this evening – A band of showers is moving east but it will weaken this evening. The trough will move through tomorrow and kick up another line of showers and thunderstorms.
Radar at 5:48pm this afternoon – There are scattered showers and a few thunderstorms across the region.  They’re moving from the southwest towards the northeast. That band of showers over the Wolf Creek area moved through the Pagosa area and caused gusty winds.
Radar at 5:48pm this afternoon – There are scattered showers and a few thunderstorms across the region.  They’re moving from the southwest towards the northeast. That band of showers over the Wolf Creek area moved through the Pagosa area and caused gusty winds.

Forecast Highlights…

*** The cold spots will flirt with freezing morning temps through Sunday morning. ***

*** Possible smoke from Arizona fires overnight. Most of it will be aloft. ***

*** Scattered showers and thunderstorms tomorrow and then warmer, dry, and breezy for a while. ***

River flow…

San Juan River flow this afternoon is 1,210cfs. Flow last year at this time was just 128cfs. On 15 June Navajo Reservoir had an inflow of 3,093cfs, an outflow of 4,000cfs, and dropped  0.26 feet. The lake hit its high point of 6063.80ft elevation on 30 May.  The low was around 6017ft in late February, so it rose about 47 feet! A gradual decrease in releases has begun and is expected to decrease to 500cfs by 26 Jun. Here’s the link for more info: Navajo Dam Project Notices
San Juan River flow this afternoon is 1,210cfs. Flow last year at this time was just 128cfs.

On 15 June Navajo Reservoir had an inflow of 3,093cfs, an outflow of 4,000cfs, and dropped  0.26 feet. The lake hit its high point of 6063.80ft elevation on 30 May.  The low was around 6017ft in late February, so it rose about 47 feet! A gradual decrease in releases has begun and is expected to decrease to 500cfs by 26 Jun. Here’s the link for more info: Navajo Dam Project Notices

Potential smoke from Arizona fires…

A couple of fires in central Arizona might send smoke in our direction. Thankfully most of the smoke is expected to stay aloft.

HRRR forecast smoke loop from 4pm to today to 8am tomorrow – Two fires in Arizona are kicking up more smoke and southwest winds will push it our way. Most of this smoke will be aloft and it will peak in our area overnight.
HRRR forecast smoke loop from 4pm to today to 8am tomorrow – Two fires in Arizona are kicking up smoke and southwest winds will push it our way. Most of this smoke will be aloft and it will peak in our area overnight.

Rest of today through Saturday evening… The upper level trough will move through tomorrow giving us our best chance for showers and thunderstorms but they’ll continue to be spotty.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-60s to mid-70s and lows will be in the low 30s to low 40s.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be in the 20-30mph range.

NBM precip through late Saturday afternoon shows 0.11” precip in the Pagosa area and up to 0.25” in our mountains. This is convective precip so amounts will vary.
NBM precip through late Saturday afternoon shows 0.11” precip in the Pagosa area and up to 0.25” in our mountains. This is convective precip so amounts will vary.

Sunday through Friday… A ridge will build just to our east and a trough will linger along the West Coast.  This puts us in the sunny, dry, warmer, and breezy spot in between.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-70s to mid-80s and lows will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be in the 20-25mph range. Monday the windy spots could hit 30mph.

My next post will be on Sunday.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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