Slight chance for showers and thunderstorms through Saturday evening…

A rainshower near Graham Peak yesterday afternoon – pic taken 6/13/2023

A rainshower near Graham Peak yesterday afternoon – pic taken 6/13/2023

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Wednesday – 14 Jun 2023 – 4:30pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature this afternoon was 73 and the low this morning was 35. Humidity bottomed out at 22% this afternoon.

The cold spots dipped into the upper 20s yesterday morning and again this morning.

The peak wind at Stevens Field this afternoon was 21mph. Here in O’Neal Park we had a peak wind of 18mph.

*** The average last freeze is 31 May, but we’re not out of the woods.  Average low temps remain in the mid-30s into the third week of June so temps can still drop below freezing. ***

What is a cold spot? Cold spots are lower areas like valleys, drainages, and stream areas.  If your morning low temps are usually at the bottom of our forecast range, you are in a cold spot.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7890 / 19473523 / 1951

Precipitation summary… A few weak showers and a thunderstorm or two moved through the area yesterday but precip reports were light.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour reports from this morning range from zero to 0.06”. Mark was rain lottery winner just north of Hatcher Lake.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour reports from this morning range from zero to 0.06”. Mark was rain lottery winner just north of Hatcher Lake.

Forecast discussion…

Satellite and lightning loop this afternoon – As of 3:45pm, showers and a couple of thunderstorms have developed over the mountains, mostly along The Divide.
Satellite and lightning loop this afternoon – As of 3:45pm, showers and a couple of thunderstorms have developed over the mountains, mostly along The Divide.
Radar at 3:46pm this afternoon – Showers and a couple of thunderstorms have developed mostly along and north of The Divide and are moving towards the northeast.
Radar at 3:46pm this afternoon – Showers and a couple of thunderstorms have developed mostly along and north of The Divide and are moving towards the northeast.

Highlights…

*** The cold spots will flirt with freezing morning temps through Saturday morning. ***

River flow…

San Juan River flow this afternoon is 1,220cfs. Flow last year at this time was just 158cfs. On 13 Jun Navajo Reservoir had an inflow of 3,596cfs, an outflow of 4,320cfs, and dropped less than 0.3 feet. The lake hit its high point of 6063.80ft elevation on 30 May.  The low was around 6017ft in late February, so it rose about 47 feet! The release schedule has changed again. A gradual decrease in releases has begun and is expected to decrease to 500cfs by 26 Jun. Here’s the link for more info: Navajo Dam Project Notices
San Juan River flow this afternoon is 1,220cfs. Flow last year at this time was just 158cfs.

On 13 Jun Navajo Reservoir had an inflow of 3,596cfs, an outflow of 4,320cfs, and dropped less than 0.3 feet. The lake hit its high point of 6063.80ft elevation on 30 May.  The low was around 6017ft in late February, so it rose about 47 feet! The release schedule has changed again. A gradual decrease has begun and is expected to decrease to 500cfs by 26 Jun. Here’s the link for more info: Navajo Dam Project Notices

Rest of today through Saturday evening… We’ll be mostly sunny, mostly dry, and temps will gradually warm.  A stray afternoon shower or thunderstorm is possible over the mountains.  The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be Saturday afternoon but they’ll be spotty.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-60s to mid-70s and lows will be in the low 30s to low 40s.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be in the 15-25mph range.

NBM precip through late Saturday afternoon shows 0.02” precip in the Pagosa area and up to 0.25” in our mountains. This is convective precip so it will be spotty.
NBM precip through late Saturday afternoon shows 0.02” precip in the Pagosa area and up to 0.25” in our mountains. This is convective precip so it will be spotty.

Sunday through Wednesday… A ridge will build just to our east and a trough will linger along the West Coast.  This puts us in the sunny, dry, warmer, and breezy spot in between.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-70s to mid-80s and lows will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be in the 20-25mph range.

My next post will be on Friday.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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