Spotty showers tomorrow and then a warming trend…

The wildflowers have been amazing! Wild irises are one of our favorites. – pic taken 6/11/2023

The wildflowers have been amazing! Wild irises are one of our favorites. – pic taken 6/11/2023

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Monday – 12 Jun 2023 – 4:30pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature this afternoon was 68 and the low this morning was 48. Humidity bottomed out at 16% this afternoon. Lower humidity equals colder nighttime lows.

The peak wind at Stevens Field this afternoon was 24mph. Here in O’Neal Park we had a peak wind of 27mph.

*** The average last freeze is 31 May, but we’re not out of the woods.  Average low temps remain in the mid-30s into the third week of June so temps can still drop below freezing. ***

What is a cold spot? Cold spots are lower areas like valleys, drainages, and stream areas.  If your morning low temps are usually at the bottom of our forecast range, you are in a cold spot.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7898 / 19463519 / 1951

Precipitation summary… A few folks north of highway 160 reported a little rain last night, but most of the county remained dry.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports are mostly zero but a couple of lucky folks got just enough to wet the ground.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports are mostly zero but a couple of lucky folks got just enough to wet the ground.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this afternoon – An upper level low is spinning over the Lake Mead area. There are just scattered clouds in our area and the atmosphere is stable. A band of severe thunderstorms moved through eastern Colorado.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon – An upper level low is spinning over the Lake Mead area. There are just scattered clouds in our area and the atmosphere is stable.  A band of severe thunderstorms moved through eastern Colorado.
Radar at 3:22pm this afternoon – There is nothing in our area. That’s a nasty line of showers and thunderstorms moving through eastern Colorado.
Radar at 3:22pm this afternoon – There is nothing in our area. That’s a nasty line of showers and thunderstorms moving through eastern Colorado.

Highlights…

*** The cold spots will dip below freezing tonight and tomorrow night. ***

River flow…

San Juan River flow this afternoon is 1,510cfs. Flow last year at this time was just 182cfs. On 11 Jun Navajo Reservoir had an inflow of 3,090cfs, an outflow of 4,430cfs, and dropped 0.3 feet. The lake hit its high point of 6063.80ft elevation on 30 May. The low was around 6017ft in late February, so it rose about 47 feet! Releases are expected to hold steady through 18 Jun and then will gradually decrease to 500cfs by 28 Jun. Here’s the link for more info: Navajo Dam Project Notices
San Juan River flow this afternoon is 1,510cfs. Flow last year at this time was just 182cfs.

On 11 Jun Navajo Reservoir had an inflow of 3,090cfs, an outflow of 4,430cfs, and dropped 0.3 feet. The lake hit its high point of 6063.80ft elevation on 30 May.  The low was around 6017ft in late February, so it rose about 47 feet! Releases are expected to hold steady through 18 Jun and then will gradually decrease to 500cfs by 28 Jun. Here’s the link for more info: Navajo Dam Project Notices

Tonight through tomorrow night… A trough will move through tomorrow and kick up a few spotty showers and thunderstorms.  High temps will be 10 degrees below average while lows will be near average. The cold spots will dip below freezing both tonight and tomorrow night.

Temps… The highs tomorrow will be in the mid-60s to low 70s and lows will be 30-40.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be in the 15-25mph range.

NWS 72-hour precip shows just 0.03” for the Pagosa area and up to 0.25” in our mountains.
NWS 72-hour precip shows just 0.03” for the Pagosa area and up to 0.25” in our mountains.

Wednesday through Sunday… We’ll be mostly sunny, mostly dry, and temps will gradually warm.  A stray afternoon shower or thunderstorm is possible over the mountains.

Temps… Wednesday highs will be in the high 60s to mid-70s and lows will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s.  Thursday through Sunday highs will be in the low to high 70s and lows will be in the

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be in the 15-25mph range.

NBM precip through late Sunday evening shows now precip in the Pagosa area and up to 0.25” in our mountains.
NBM precip through late Sunday evening shows now precip in the Pagosa area and up to 0.25” in our mountains.

My next post will be on Wednesday.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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