Scattered showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday…

Storm brewing over the Piedra River valley – pic taken 6/3/2023

Storm brewing over the Piedra River valley – pic taken 6/3/2023

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Saturday – 3 Jun 2023 – 5:30pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature this afternoon was 68 and the low this morning was 39. Humidity bottomed out at 26% this afternoon.

The peak wind at Stevens Field this afternoon was 21mph. Here in O’Neal Park we had a peak wind of 19mph.

*** The average last freeze is 31 May, but we’re not out of the woods.  Average low temps remain in the mid-30s into the third week of June so temps can still drop below freezing. ***

What is a cold spot? Cold spots are lower areas like valleys, drainages, and stream areas.  If your morning low temps are usually at the bottom of our forecast range, you are in a cold spot.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7486 / 19463420 / 1951

Precipitation summary… A couple of spotty showers moved through, but precip amounts were light.

CoCoRaHS reports this morning range from zero to 0.05”.
CoCoRaHS reports this morning range from zero to 0.05”.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this afternoon – The low is spinning over the Great Basin and kicking up showers across the region.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon – The low is spinning over the Great Basin and kicking up showers across the region.
Radar at 4:58pm this afternoon – There were showers along The Divide moving slowly towards the southeast.
Radar at 4:58pm this afternoon – There were showers along The Divide moving slowly towards the southeast.

Highlights…

*** The cold spots will continue to flirt with freezing temps each morning. ***

*** Brief periods of localized heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning are possible with scattered showers and thunderstorms. ***

River flow…

San Juan River flow dropped to 1,450cfs this afternoon. It’s the first time we’ve been near the median since early April! Flow last year at this time was just 339cfs. As of this morning, the Upper San Juan snotel has less than 1” of snow water equivalent (SWE). On 2 Jun Navajo Reservoir had an inflow of 3,453cfs, an outflow of 4,310cfs, and dropped 0.2 feet. Releases and inflows have evened out, so the lake hit its high point: 6063.80ft elevation.  The low was around 6017ft in late February, so it has risen about 47 feet! The release schedule continues to change due to flooding concerns on 2 properties downstream of the dam. Here’s the link for more info: Navajo Dam Project Notices
San Juan River flow dropped to 1,450cfs this afternoon. It’s the first time we’ve been near the median since early April! Flow last year at this time was just 339cfs. As of this morning, the Upper San Juan snotel has less than 1” of snow water equivalent (SWE).

On 2 Jun Navajo Reservoir had an inflow of 3,453cfs, an outflow of 4,310cfs, and dropped 0.2 feet. Releases and inflows have evened out, so the lake hit its high point: 6063.80ft elevation.  The low was around 6017ft in late February, so it has risen about 47 feet! The release schedule continues to change due to flooding concerns on 2 properties downstream of the dam. Here’s the link for more info: Navajo Dam Project Notices

Rest of today through Wednesday… A series of weak systems will move through the Four Corners region.

Precipitable water, a measure of moisture, and Cape, a measure of instability, will both increase but remain marginal for showers and thunderstorms.  It’s a coin toss on whether a shower will hit you each day.

Temps… Tonight lows will be in the mid-30s to low 40s.  Sunday through Wednesday highs will be in the mid-60s to mid-70s, and lows will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be mostly in the 15-20mph range.  However, isolated gusts 25-35mph are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

NBM total precip to late Wednesday evening shows 0.50” near Pagosa, 0.47” near Chama, and up to 1.40” in the south San Juans. Eastern Colorado will be favored. Note: This is all convective showers which means it will be spotty. Any single shower is capable of dropping a bunch of rain over a small area in a short period.
NBM total precip to late Wednesday evening shows 0.50” near Pagosa, 0.47” near Chama, and up to 1.40” in the south San Juans. Eastern Colorado will be favored.
Note: This is all convective showers which means it will be spotty. Any single shower is capable of dropping a bunch of rain over a small area in a short period.

Thursday through Sunday… Moisture will gradually decrease, and the atmosphere will slowly become more stable. Afternoon storm activity will decrease, but there will still be a slight chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm each afternoon, mostly over the mountains.

Temps… Highs will be in the high 60s to mid-70s and lows will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be in the 15-20mph range.

Euro forecast model precip for this period shows just 0.01” for the Pagosa area and up to 0.25” in our mountains.
Euro forecast model precip for this period shows just 0.01” for the Pagosa area and up to 0.25” in our mountains.

Make sure to check out Arleen’s summer monsoon outlook:

Mark will take over tomorrow.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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