Storm brewing over the Piedra River valley – pic taken 6/3/2023
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Saturday – 3 Jun 2023 – 5:30pm
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temperature this afternoon was 68 and the low this morning was 39. Humidity bottomed out at 26% this afternoon.
The peak wind at Stevens Field this afternoon was 21mph. Here in O’Neal Park we had a peak wind of 19mph.
*** The average last freeze is 31 May, but we’re not out of the woods. Average low temps remain in the mid-30s into the third week of June so temps can still drop below freezing. ***
What is a cold spot? Cold spots are lower areas like valleys, drainages, and stream areas. If your morning low temps are usually at the bottom of our forecast range, you are in a cold spot.
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 74 | 86 / 1946 | 34 | 20 / 1951 |
Precipitation summary… A couple of spotty showers moved through, but precip amounts were light.
Forecast discussion…
Highlights…
*** The cold spots will continue to flirt with freezing temps each morning. ***
*** Brief periods of localized heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning are possible with scattered showers and thunderstorms. ***
River flow…
On 2 Jun Navajo Reservoir had an inflow of 3,453cfs, an outflow of 4,310cfs, and dropped 0.2 feet. Releases and inflows have evened out, so the lake hit its high point: 6063.80ft elevation. The low was around 6017ft in late February, so it has risen about 47 feet! The release schedule continues to change due to flooding concerns on 2 properties downstream of the dam. Here’s the link for more info: Navajo Dam Project Notices
Rest of today through Wednesday… A series of weak systems will move through the Four Corners region.
Precipitable water, a measure of moisture, and Cape, a measure of instability, will both increase but remain marginal for showers and thunderstorms. It’s a coin toss on whether a shower will hit you each day.
Temps… Tonight lows will be in the mid-30s to low 40s. Sunday through Wednesday highs will be in the mid-60s to mid-70s, and lows will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s.
Winds… Afternoon gusts will be mostly in the 15-20mph range. However, isolated gusts 25-35mph are possible near showers and thunderstorms.
Note: This is all convective showers which means it will be spotty. Any single shower is capable of dropping a bunch of rain over a small area in a short period.
Thursday through Sunday… Moisture will gradually decrease, and the atmosphere will slowly become more stable. Afternoon storm activity will decrease, but there will still be a slight chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm each afternoon, mostly over the mountains.
Temps… Highs will be in the high 60s to mid-70s and lows will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s.
Winds… Afternoon gusts will be in the 15-20mph range.
Make sure to check out Arleen’s summer monsoon outlook:
Mark will take over tomorrow.
– Shawn
