Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue…

Love waking up to scenes like this after a stormy day! – pic taken 5/31/2023

Love waking up to scenes like this after a stormy day! – pic taken 5/31/2023

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Friday – 2 Jun 2023 – 10:30am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 64 and the low this morning was 33. Humidity bottomed out at 24% yesterday. * Data is missing from 3pm to 5:30pm due to a communications outage. *

My low temp forecast was about 5 degrees too warm.  At 6:15 this morning, most locations were in the mid to high 30s but there were quite a few in the 30-32 range.  A couple of cold spots were in the upper 20s.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 22mph. Here in O’Neal Park we had a peak wind of 28mph.

*** The average last freeze is 31 May, but we’re not out of the woods.  Average low temps remain in the mid-30s into the third week of June so temps can still drop below freezing. ***

What is a cold spot? Cold spots are lower areas like valleys, drainages, and stream areas.  If your morning low temps are usually at the bottom of our forecast range, you are in a cold spot.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7383 / 19123320 / 1951

Precipitation summary… A band of showers moved through around 4pm but most precip reports were light.

CoCoRaHS reports this morning range from zero to 0.21”. Udgar was the rain lottery winner southeast of Echo Canyon Reservoir!
CoCoRaHS reports this morning range from zero to 0.21”. Udgar was the rain lottery winner southeast of Echo Canyon Reservoir!

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this morning – The trough was over our heads and is slowly moving east.  The green arrows indicate upper level flow behind the trough and ahead of it.  Flow over us is switching to northwest.  There is still quite a bit a moisture behind the trough.
Water vapor satellite this morning – The trough was over our heads and is slowly moving east.  The green arrows indicate upper level flow behind the trough and ahead of it.  Flow over us is switching to northwest.  There is still quite a bit a moisture behind the trough.
Radar at 9:22am this morning – There were a couple of small, weak showers over the eastern part of the county moving towards the southeast. Showers will move from the northwest towards the southeast today.
Radar at 9:22am this morning – There were a couple of small, weak showers over the eastern part of the county moving towards the southeast. Showers will move from the northwest towards the southeast today.

Forecast Highlights…

*** The cold spots will continue to flirt with freezing temps each morning. ***

*** Brief periods of localized heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning are possible with scattered showers and thunderstorms. ***

River flow…

San Juan River flow dropped to 1,800cfs this morning. Flow last year at this time was just 345cfs. As of this morning, the Upper San Juan snotel still has around 1.7” of snow water equivalent (SWE). On 1 Jun Navajo Reservoir had an inflow of 4,305cfs, an outflow of 4,470cfs, and dropped 0.1 feet. Releases and inflows have evened out, so the lake is at its high point: 6063.90ft elevation.  The low was around 6017ft in late February, so it has risen about 47 feet! The release schedule continues to change due to flooding concerns on 2 properties downstream of the dam. Here’s the link for more info: Navajo Dam Project Notices
San Juan River flow dropped to 1,800cfs this morning. Flow last year at this time was just 345cfs. As of this morning, the Upper San Juan snotel still has around 1.7” of snow water equivalent (SWE).

On 1 Jun Navajo Reservoir had an inflow of 4,305cfs, an outflow of 4,470cfs, and dropped 0.1 feet. Releases and inflows have evened out, so the lake is at its high point: 6063.90ft elevation.  The low was around 6017ft in late February, so it has risen about 47 feet! The release schedule continues to change due to flooding concerns on 2 properties downstream of the dam. Here’s the link for more info: Navajo Dam Project Notices

Rest of today through next Thursday… A series of weak systems will move through the Four Corners region.

Precipitable water, a measure of moisture, and Cape, a measure of instability, will both increase but remain marginal for showers and thunderstorms.  It’s a coin toss on whether a shower will hit you each day.

Temps… Today highs will be in the high 50s to mid-60s and lows will be in the low 30s to low 40s. On Saturday highs will be in the low to high 60s and lows will be in the mid-30s to low 40s.  Sunday through Thursday highs will be in the mid-60s to mid-70s, and lows will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be mostly in the 15-20mph range.  However, isolated gusts 25-35mph are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

HRRR forecast radar loop from 10am to 10pm today – Showers and thunderstorms develop over the mountains by 11am and then most of the activity stays over the mountains.  This is typical for us in a northwest flow pattern.
HRRR forecast radar loop from 10am to 10pm today – Showers and thunderstorms develop over the mountains by 11am and then most of the activity stays over the mountains.  This is typical for us in a northwest flow pattern.
NBM total precip to late Thursday evening shows 0.55” near Pagosa, 0.52” near Chama, and up to 1.25” in our mountains. Eastern Colorado will be favored. Note: This is all convective showers which means it will be spotty. Any single shower is capable of dropping a bunch of rain over a small area in a short period.
NBM total precip to late Thursday evening shows 0.55” near Pagosa, 0.52” near Chama, and up to 1.25” in our mountains. Eastern Colorado will be favored.
Note: This is all convective showers which means it will be spotty. Any single shower is capable of dropping a bunch of rain over a small area in a short period.

My next forecast post will be tomorrow afternoon. 

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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