Love waking up to scenes like this after a stormy day! – pic taken 5/31/2023
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Friday – 2 Jun 2023 – 10:30am
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 64 and the low this morning was 33. Humidity bottomed out at 24% yesterday. * Data is missing from 3pm to 5:30pm due to a communications outage. *
My low temp forecast was about 5 degrees too warm. At 6:15 this morning, most locations were in the mid to high 30s but there were quite a few in the 30-32 range. A couple of cold spots were in the upper 20s.
The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 22mph. Here in O’Neal Park we had a peak wind of 28mph.
*** The average last freeze is 31 May, but we’re not out of the woods. Average low temps remain in the mid-30s into the third week of June so temps can still drop below freezing. ***
What is a cold spot? Cold spots are lower areas like valleys, drainages, and stream areas. If your morning low temps are usually at the bottom of our forecast range, you are in a cold spot.
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 73 | 83 / 1912 | 33 | 20 / 1951 |
Precipitation summary… A band of showers moved through around 4pm but most precip reports were light.
Forecast discussion…
Forecast Highlights…
*** The cold spots will continue to flirt with freezing temps each morning. ***
*** Brief periods of localized heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning are possible with scattered showers and thunderstorms. ***
River flow…
On 1 Jun Navajo Reservoir had an inflow of 4,305cfs, an outflow of 4,470cfs, and dropped 0.1 feet. Releases and inflows have evened out, so the lake is at its high point: 6063.90ft elevation. The low was around 6017ft in late February, so it has risen about 47 feet! The release schedule continues to change due to flooding concerns on 2 properties downstream of the dam. Here’s the link for more info: Navajo Dam Project Notices
Rest of today through next Thursday… A series of weak systems will move through the Four Corners region.
Precipitable water, a measure of moisture, and Cape, a measure of instability, will both increase but remain marginal for showers and thunderstorms. It’s a coin toss on whether a shower will hit you each day.
Temps… Today highs will be in the high 50s to mid-60s and lows will be in the low 30s to low 40s. On Saturday highs will be in the low to high 60s and lows will be in the mid-30s to low 40s. Sunday through Thursday highs will be in the mid-60s to mid-70s, and lows will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s.
Winds… Afternoon gusts will be mostly in the 15-20mph range. However, isolated gusts 25-35mph are possible near showers and thunderstorms.
Note: This is all convective showers which means it will be spotty. Any single shower is capable of dropping a bunch of rain over a small area in a short period.
My next forecast post will be tomorrow afternoon.
– Shawn
