Chances for rain continue through the weekend and into early next week.

Cloudy peak

Thanks to a very saturated atmosphere, Pagosa Peak looks more like a mountain in the tropics! © 2023-Mark Langford

Saturday 5-20-2023. 9:45am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 63 and the low this morning was 45 degrees. Winds gusted to 27mph.

Precipitation summary: 24hr rainfall totals from ranged from 0.09 to 0.85 inches in Chromo. Remote sensors recorded 0.97 inches in the far SE part of the county and 2.04 inches NE of Ignacio in La Plata County! The good news is that the flood advisory for the San Juan River has been cancelled.

Screenshot 2023 05 20 082455
COCORAHS 24hr rainfall totals ranged from 0.09 to 0.85 inches.
Screenshot 2023 05 20 082711
Remote sensors recorded 0.97 inches in the far SE part of the county and 2.04 inches NE of Ignacio in La Plata County.

…The Flood Advisory is cancelled for the following rivers in
Colorado…San Juan River at Pagosa Springs.

…FLOOD ADVISORY IS CANCELLED…


* ADDITIONAL DETAILS…
– At 3:00 AM MDT Saturday, May 20 the stage was 8.5 feet.
– Storms failed to materialize with regularity in the San Juan
River Basin Friday afternoon and evening and as a result,
levels fell over the past twenty-four hours.
– Forecast…Additional rainfall is expected today, however
temperatures will be cooler, slowing snow melt. As a result,
there is some uncertainty in the forecast stage today, but
current trends indicate that levels will continue to fall to near 8 feet.

Screenshot 2023 05 20 083230
Today’s San Juan River flow is at 2570cfs.
Screenshot 2023 05 20 083310
Today’s Piedra River flow is at 2190cfs.

Pagosa Springs historical data

*** The average last freeze is 31 May.  Temps can still drop below freezing into the third week of June with average lows remaining in the mid-30s. ***

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7080/ 19613212/ 1940

Forecast discussion…

The mid-levels of our atmosphere continue to be saturated with moisture, giving us a good chance for more rain over the next 2-3 days. By early next week, the Rex Block that has been over the west coast for the past week, will start breaking down as a deep trough begins forming over the Pacific NW. This will eventually move the ridge eastward and start drying us out by Thursday and beyond.

A reminder to hikers…afternoon storms can not only produce lightning and drop hail and brief heavy rain, but temperatures can drop quickly, producing the potential for hypothermia if you are not prepared with rain jackets, etc.

Screenshot 2023 05 20 084339
The mid-levels of our atmosphere continue to be saturated with moisture, giving us a good chance for more rain over the next 2-3 days.
Screenshot 2023 05 20 083620
The latest 3-day rainfall forecast from the NWS predicts 0.40 inches for Pagosa Springs.
NBM 1
The latest NBM model is predicting 0.44 inches of rain for us from today through Wednesday of next week.
Screenshot 2023 05 20 083529
The latest GFS model is predicting 0.91 inches of rain through Wednesday of next week.

5-Day Forecast…

The rest of the day: Mostly cloudy with a chance for morning showers and thunderstorms, then a chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Highs in mid to upper 50’s. SW winds 5-10mph with wind gusts over 25mph near thunderstorms. Rainfall totals: 0.10 to 0.30 inches.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a good chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s and highs in the low to mid 60’s. SW winds 5-10mph with wind gusts over 25mph near thunderstorms. Daily rainfall totals: 0.10 to 0.30 inches.

Monday: Mostly cloudy with a good chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s and highs in the low to mid 60’s. SW winds 5-10mph with wind gusts over 25mph near thunderstorms. Daily rainfall totals: 0.10 to 0.30 inches.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy with a chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s and highs in mid to upper 60’s. SW winds 5-10mph with wind gusts over 25mph near thunderstorms. Daily rainfall totals: 0.05 to 0.15 inches.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy with a chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s and highs in upper 60’s to low 70’s. SW winds 5-10mph with wind gusts over 25mph near thunderstorms. Daily rainfall total: Zero-0.10 inches.

Thursday: Partly cloudy with a slight chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s and highs in upper 60’s to low 70’s. SW winds 5-10mph with wind gusts over 25mph near thunderstorms. Daily rainfall total: Zero-0.05 inches.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

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