More of the same…afternoon and evening thunderstorms will continue!

Weather Nerds

It was great to see so many of you at last night’s monsoon presentation, part of the Lifelong Learning Program at the Ruby Sisson Library. Pictured here are myself (Mark Langford), along with Arleen Prochazka and some of our fellow weather enthusiasts! With around 40 in attendance, we will be moving into a larger room in the library next year.

Friday 5-19-2023. 10:am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 67 and the low this morning was 38 degrees. Winds gusted to 28mph.

Precipitation summary: 24hr rainfall totals from ranged from 0.01 to 0.24 inches. We had quite a lot of pea-size hail fall at our place about a mile north of Hatcher Lake. See my video post from yesterday.

 Our nearby rivers are on the rise and with a good chance for rain over the next 5 days, levels could get to flood stages.

Screenshot 2023 05 19 083022
COCORAHS 24hr rainfall totals ranged from 0.01 to 0.24 inches.

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
3:11 PM MDT Thurs May 18 2023


…The National Weather Service in Grand Junction has issued a Flood
Advisory for the following rivers in Colorado…
San Juan River at Pagosa Springs affecting Archuleta County.

The combination of warm, spring temperatures and the potential for
periods of rain falling on a deep snowpack will lead to an increase
in runoff due to snowmelt.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

If you are in the advisory area, remain alert to possible flooding.
Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National
Weather Service when you can do so safely.

311 PM MDT Thu May 18 2023

…FLOOD ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING…

* WHAT…Minor flooding caused by rain and snowmelt is expected.

* WHERE…San Juan River at Pagosa Springs.

* WHEN…Until early Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS…At 10.3 feet, water is expected to flow into residential
yards in the San Juan River Village, northeast of Pagosa Springs.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS…
– At 1:00 PM MDT Thursday the stage was 8.7 feet.

– Forecast…The river will crest around 9.1 feet just after
midnight tonight, and then drop to roughly 8.6 feet by early
tomorrow afternoon. Then, water levels are expected to rise
back up, peaking around 10.2 feet Saturday morning. It will
then fall again and oscillate below bankfull through next
week.

– Action stage is 9.5 feet.

– Flood stage is 10.5 feet.

San Juan
Today’s San Juan River flow is at 2860cfs.
Piedra
Today’s Piedra River flow is at 2250cfs.

Pagosa Springs historical data

*** The average last freeze is 31 May.  Temps can still drop below freezing into the third week of June with average lows remaining in the mid-30s. ***

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7080/ 19963119/ 1943

Forecast discussion…

Slightly drier air filtered in last night behind a cool front, but an upper-level trough moving in from the NW will send more moisture into the mid-levels, giving us a good chance for more thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. That sneaky cool front lowered our dewpoints and lead to temps dropping to 31 degrees at our place just north of Hatcher Lake! This came right after I assured everyone at last night’s weather presentation that while we were in the rain mode, we wouldn’t have to worry about freezes! The best odds for rain are today and Saturday, but rain chances will continue through at least Wednesday of next week.

A reminder to hikers…afternoon storms can not only produce lightning and drop hail and brief heavy rain, but temperatures can drop quickly, producing the potential for hypothermia if you are not prepared with rain jackets, etc.

Screenshot 2023 05 19 092806
Slightly drier air filtered in last night behind a cool front, but an upper-level trough moving in from the NW will send more moisture into the mid-levels, giving us a good chance for more thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
Screenshot 2023 05 19 084614
The latest 3-day rainfall forecast from the NWS predicts 0.70 inches for Pagosa Springs.
Screenshot 2023 05 19 092331
The latest NBM model is predicting 0.79 inches of rain for us from today through Monday of next week.
Screenshot 2023 05 19 084744
The latest GFS model is back to predicting the most rain through Monday of next week…1.70 inches!
Screenshot 2023 05 19 084832
The latest Euro model run is predicting 1.04 inches of rain through Monday of next week.

5-Day Forecast…

The rest of the day: Partly cloudy with a good chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Highs in upper 60’s to low 70’s. SW winds 5-10mph with wind gusts over 25mph near thunderstorms. Rainfall totals 0.10 to 0.40 inches.

Saturday-Mostly cloudy with a chance for morning showers and thunderstorms, then a chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s and highs in mid to upper 60’s. SW winds 5-10mph with wind gusts over 25mph near thunderstorms. Daily rainfall total 0.10 to 0.30 inches.

Sunday: Partly cloudy with a good chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s and highs in mid to upper 60’s. SW winds 5-10mph with wind gusts over 25mph near thunderstorms. Daily rainfall total 0.10 to 0.30 inches.

Monday-Tuesday: Partly cloudy with a good chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s and highs in mid to upper 60’s. SW winds 5-10mph with wind gusts over 25mph near thunderstorms. Daily rainfall totals 0.05 to 0.25 inches.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy with a chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s and highs in upper 60’s to low 70’s. SW winds 5-10mph with wind gusts over 25mph near thunderstorms. Daily rainfall total zero-0.10 inches.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weath

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