Rain in the forecast for at least the next 6 days!

Monsoon

Tonight at the library at 6pm.

Join Arleen Prochazka and Mark Langford as they talk about Monsoon Season in the southern San Juan Mountains. Arleen will explain exactly how and when the monsoon sets up in our area. In addition, she will go over the evidence that indicates whether we are going to have a weak, average, or strong monsoon season. Last year we had 9.32″ of precipitation for the monsoon season months of July, August, and September. That was well above the average of 6.25″. Will this season be another soaker?

In addition, Mark will cover lightning safety, the latest update on the southwest Doppler radar, and updates to the Pagosa Weather web page.

Thursday 5-18-2023. 9am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 70 and the low this morning was 42 degrees. Winds gusted to 30mph.

Precipitation summary: 24hr rainfall totals from a trace to 0.11 inches near Hatcher Lake.

 Our nearby rivers are on the rise and with a good chance for rain over the next 5 days, levels could get to flood stages. Arleen will have a special river forecast out this afternoon.

Screenshot 2023 05 18 083938
COCORAHS 24hr rainfall totals ranged from a trace to 0.11 inches near Hatcher Lake.

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
3:11 PM MDT Thurs May 18 2023


…The National Weather Service in Grand Junction has issued a Flood
Advisory for the following rivers in Colorado…
San Juan River at Pagosa Springs affecting Archuleta County.

The combination of warm, spring temperatures and the potential for
periods of rain falling on a deep snowpack will lead to an increase
in runoff due to snowmelt.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

If you are in the advisory area, remain alert to possible flooding.
Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National
Weather Service when you can do so safely.

311 PM MDT Thu May 18 2023

…FLOOD ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING…

* WHAT…Minor flooding caused by rain and snowmelt is expected.

* WHERE…San Juan River at Pagosa Springs.

* WHEN…Until early Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS…At 10.3 feet, water is expected to flow into residential
yards in the San Juan River Village, northeast of Pagosa Springs.



* ADDITIONAL DETAILS…
– At 1:00 PM MDT Thursday the stage was 8.7 feet.


– Forecast…The river will crest around 9.1 feet just after
midnight tonight, and then drop to roughly 8.6 feet by early
tomorrow afternoon. Then, water levels are expected to rise
back up, peaking around 10.2 feet Saturday morning. It will
then fall again and oscillate below bankfull through next
week.

– Action stage is 9.5 feet.

– Flood stage is 10.5 feet.

Screenshot 2023 05 18 074742
Today’s San Juan River flow is at 3220cfs.
Screenshot 2023 05 18 074833
Today’s Piedra River flow is at 2390cfs.

Pagosa Springs historical data

*** The average last freeze is 31 May.  Temps can still drop below freezing into the third week of June with average lows remaining in the mid-30s. ***

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7084/ 19563118/ 1908

Forecast discussion…

Thanks to the Rex Block over the west coast, a trough to our north and a mid-level wave approaching from the NW, we will see a decent chance for more thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The best odds for rain now appear to be Friday and Saturday, but rain chances will continue through at least Wednesday of next week.

A reminder to hikers…afternoon storms can not only produce lightning and drop hail and brief heavy rain, but temperatures can drop quickly, producing the potential for hypothermia if you are not prepared with rain jackets, etc.

Screenshot 2023 05 18 082059
Thanks to the Rex Block over the west coast and a trough to our north and a mid-level wave approaching from the NW, we will see a decent chance for more thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
Screenshot 2023 05 18 082818
The latest 3-day rainfall forecast from the NWS predicts 0.90 inches for Pagosa Springs.
Screenshot 2023 05 18 090018
The latest NBM model is predicting 0.98 inches of rain for us from today through Monday of next week.
Screenshot 2023 05 18 082953
The latest GFS model has changed dramatically over the past couple of days. It is now predicting 0.70 inches of rain for us today through Monday of next week. It had predicted over 2 inches of rain just a couple of days ago.

5-Day Forecast…

The rest of the day: Partly cloudy with a chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Highs in upper 60’s to low 70’s. SW winds 5-10mph with wind gusts over 25mph near thunderstorms. Rainfall totals 0.05 to 0.25 inches.

Friday-Saturday: Partly cloudy with a good chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s and highs in mid to upper 60’s. SW winds 5-10mph with wind gusts over 25mph near thunderstorms. Daily rainfall totals 0.10 to 0.30 inches.

Sunday-Tuesday: Partly cloudy with a good chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s and highs in low to mid 60’s. SW winds 5-10mph with wind gusts over 25mph near thunderstorms. Daily rainfall totals 0.05 to 0.25 inches.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

-Mark Langford

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