A slight lull in the rain today, then odds ramp up starting tomorrow…

Storm

This big storm developed over Sandoval Mesa yesterday…I shot this image from Ignacio.

Tuesday 5-16-2023. 9:15am

*** Mark your calendar for Thursday, 18 May at 6:00pm. Arleen and Mark are doing a Pagosa Weather presentation at the library! ***

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 66 and the low this morning was 40 degrees. Winds gusted to 17mph.

Precipitation summary: The rain gods decided to give the Pagosa Weather Team the highest rain totals yesterday, except for the NWS remote sensor on Sandoval Mesa that recorded 0.32 inches from the storm that appears on the cover of this post.

Screenshot 2023 05 16 081854
COCORAHS 24hr rainfall totals ranged from zero to 0.21 inches.
Screenshot 2023 05 16 081800
NWS remote 24hr rainfall totals show an area in Sandoval Mesa received 0.32 inches of rain.
Screenshot 2023 05 16 082653
Today’s San Juan River flow is at 2790cfs.

Pagosa Springs historical data

*** The average last freeze is 31 May.  Temps can still drop below freezing into the third week of June with average lows remaining in the mid-30s. ***

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6885/ 19883014/ 1916

Forecast discussion…

Drier air is in place as mid-level winds have switched to a zonal flow (west to east). An upper-level trough will develop to our north on Wednesday, sending a frontal boundary our way and giving us a good chance for rain for the rest of the week as disturbances move through our area. With rain odds ramping up through the weekend, especially in the mountains, an acceleration of snow melt could cause issues for our rivers and streams.

A reminder to hikers…afternoon storms can not only produce lightning and drop hail and brief heavy rain, but temperatures can drop quickly, producing the potential for hypothermia if you are not prepared with rain jackets, etc.

Screenshot 2023 05 16 083118
Drier air is in place (yellow tones) as mid-level winds have switched to a zonal flow (west to east). An upper-level trough will develop to our north on Wednesday, sending a frontal boundary our way and giving us a good chance for rain for the rest of the week as disturbances move through our area.
Screenshot 2023 05 16 080502
The latest 3-day rainfall forecast from the NWS predicts 0.21 inches for Pagosa Springs.
NBM
The latest NBM model is predicting 0.80 inches of rain for us from today through this weekend. These totals look reasonable to me.
Screenshot 2023 05 16 080646
The latest GFS model is predicting 2.50 inches of rain for us today through this weekend! That is a bit on the high side from my perspective, but we shall see

5-Day Forecast…

The rest of the day: Partly cloudy with a slight chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Highs in the low to mid 70’s. SE winds 5-10 mph, with wind gusts over 25mph near thunderstorms. Zero-0.05 rainfall totals.

Wednesday-Friday: Partly cloudy with a good chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s and highs in upper 60’s to low 70’s. SW winds 5-10mph with wind gusts over 25mph near thunderstorms. Daily rainfall totals 0.05 to 0.25 inches.

Saturday-Sunday: Partly cloudy with a good chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s and highs in mid to upper 60’s. SW winds 5-10mph with wind gusts over 25mph near thunderstorms. Daily rainfall totals 0.05 to 0.25 inches.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

-Mark Langford

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